2008 - Week 18 - Wildcard Games

Atlanta @ Arizona

Atlanta (11-5): For road games they score 19.2 avg pts and give up 20.1 avg pts. For road dome games they score 24.5 avg pts. and give up 23 avg pts.
Their TO avg. is 1.4 with a penalty avg. of 5 for 42 yds

Sideline: They have won 4 road games - 2 against losing avg. teams, 1 against a 8-8 team and 1 against winning avg teams. They have lost 4 road games against 3 winning avg. teams & 1 against a 8-8 team. In 3 road games they were listed as favorites (53% > 83%) - they won 2 and lost 1. Atlanta is currently listed as 77% to 80% favorites...

Arizona (9-7): For home/dome games they score 30.2 avg pts and give up 22.2 avg pts.
Their TO avg. is 1.2 with a penalty avg. of 7 for 53 yds.

Sideline: They have won 6 home games - 4 against losing avg. teams and 2 against winning avg. teams. They have lost 2 home games against 2 winning avg. teams. In 3 home games they were listed as under-dogs (25% > 30%) - they won 2 & lost 1.
Arizona is currently listed as 20% to 23% underdogs...

Key points to watch for: To win Atlanta QB Matt Ryan needs to throw at maxium only 1 interception. Atlantas RBs Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood need to combine for 100+ yds. Should handle the job with a offense that has a 32 total ranking.

For Arizona to win their defense needs to pressure Ryan into mistakes/interceptions and keep Turner/Norwood from rushing 100 yds. Of course with a defense total ranking of 85, might make for a long day... MY PICK: ATLANTA


Indianapolis @ San Diego

Up-Date: Tomlinson, Gates miss 2nd practice. Real or Ploy? See - Injury

Indianapolis (12-4): for road games they score 21.5 avg. pts. and give up 22.1 avg.pts. For road grass games they score 22.0 avg.pts. and give up 23.1 avg.pts.
Their TO avg. is 1.4 with a penalty avg. of 6 for 43 yds.

Sideline: They have won 6 out of 8 road games - 2 against winning avg. teams, 2 against 8 -8 teams, 2 against losing avg.teams. They have lost 2 road games - 1 against a winning avg. team and 1 against a losing avg. team. They were listed as favorites in 6 of them with a percent range of 71% > 97% - they won 5 & lost 1. The other 2 road games, they were listed as underdogs with a percent range of 26% > 27% - they lost 1 and won 1.... Indianapolis is currently listed as 80% favorites.


San Diego (8-8): For home games they score 30.5 avg. pts and give up 19.6 avg.pts. For grass games they score 28.3 avg. pts and give up 21.6 avg. pts.
Their TO avg. is 0.9 with a penalty avg. of 6 for 43 yds.

Sideline: They have won 5 out of 8 home games - 2 against winning avg. teams, 2 against losing avg. teams and 1 against a 8-8 team. They have lost 3 home games all against winning avg. teams. In 6 home games they were listed as favorites to win with a percent range of 63% > 96% - they won 5 & lost 1. The other 2 home games they were listed as underdogs to lose with a percent range of 18% > 45% - they lost both. San Diego is currently listed as 20% underdogs.

Key points to watch for: To win Indy must find a way to keep SD RB Tomlinson from the ball (-20 carries) or keeping him at minimum yardage. (-40), while at the same time picking up Sproles. Also, 2 to 3 sacks on Rivers will help immensely. Very doable if their total 48th ranking defense comes to play.

For San Diego to win, they have to hope by chance that P.Manning of early season shows up. If not that than defense needs to sack him 3+ times and force 2+ TOs, also keep in check Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes from racking up yds, while containing Reggie Wayne from getting in the open so much. Hard to do when your defense has a total ranking of 82... MY PICK: INDIANAPOLIS

Baltimore @ Miami

Baltimore (11-5): For road games they score 25.6 avg pts. and give up 20.5 avg. pts. Grass games they score 24.2 avg. pts. and give up 14.3 avg. pts. Their TO avg. is 1.2 with a penalty avg. of 6 for 48 yds.

Sideline: They have played 6 road games, (since & including Miami win) they have won 5 and lost 1. The 1 they lost was against the Giants(12-4) - the 5 they won were against Miami(11-5), who were 2-3 at the time they played, Cleveland(4-12), Houston(8-8), Cincinnati(4-11), Dallas(9-7).

Don't let the Dallas win fool you, that was in last 2 weeks of season, with the Dallas team being a coaches worse nightmare. Not much better standing teams then Miami has played against, and as with Miami, the wins looks good on paper, but Baltimore had a hard time with the stronger team.

In their 8 road games, they were listed as percentage under-dogs (11% > 49%) in 6 of them - they won 3 & lost 3. In the other 2 they were listed as percent favorites (80% > 97%) - they won both. Baltimore is currently listed as 55% to 60% favorites.

Miami (11-5): For home games they score 18.6 avg. pts. and give up 20.5 avg pts. Grass games they 22.1 avg. pts. and give up 21.5 avg. pts.
Their TO avg. is 0.9 with a penalty avg. of 5 for 44 yds.

Sideline: They have played 6 home games, (since & including balt. lost) they have won 4 and lost 2. The 2 they lost were against Balt.(11-5) & N.E.(11-5) - the 4 they won were against Buffalo(7-9), Seattle(4-12), Oakland(5-11), San Francisco(7-9). As you can see Miami's 4 victories all though looking good on paper were against much weaker teams. When going up against a little stronger win percentage teams, they seem to have had a hard time.

Out of the total 8 home games Miami had - in 4 they were listed as percentage under-dogs with a range of 11% > 49% chance of winning - they won 2 & lost 2. In the 4 they were listed as favorites with a percent range of 67% > 98% chance of winning - they won 3 & lost 1.
Miami is currently listed as 40% to 45% underdogs.

Key points to watch for: To win Miami needs to get to Flacco and make him throw interceptions, that has been the key between these 2 teams since last year. They also have to dazzle - up their "wildcat" package and get Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams some running yds, somewhere between 100 to 130 combined.

For Baltimore to win, they need Flacco perfect and since last meeting the Dolphins have made great improvements in their secondary pass coverage in the second half of the season. Miami pass rush could hurt Baltimore also. LeRon McClain and Willis McGahee, could help if they get yardage of 100 or so... MY PICK: MIAMI


Philadelphia @ Minnesota

(NOTE) - Just the road/home/dome games point stats below are limited. Philadelphia's are from the tie game with Cincinnati to end of season - this is the period that McNabb was benched and then came back alive. Minnesota's are from the 3 home games that Jackson has played QB in, since it looks like he will be playing instead of Frerotte...

Philadelphia(9-6-1): For road games they score 10.7 avg. pts. and give up 18.3 avg.pts. they have not played a dome game this year. Their TO avg. is 1.9 with a penalty avg. of 5 for 39 yds.

Sideline: First off you have to wonder which McNabb & Eagle team will show up? the one that put away Arizona and Dallas @ home or the one that didn't even get a TD @ Washington. McNabbs mood is key to Philadelphia games and since tieing with Cincinnati he has not been all that great in away games, no matter what he has done at home. (13-13 @ Cin., 7-36 @ Balt., 20-14 @ Nyg., 3-10 @ Wash.)

With Philadelphias 8 road games, they were listed as favorites in 5 with percent range of 80% > 97% - they won 2 - lost 2 - tied 1. In 3 games they were listed as under-dogs with a percent range of 11% > 35% - they won 1 & lost 2. Philadelphia is currently listed as 65% to 70% favorites.

Minnesota(10-6): For home/dome games (under Jackson) they score 17.3 avg.pts and give up 20.3 avg. pts. Their TO avg. is 1.9 with a penalty avg. of 5 for 43 yds.

Sideline: Jackson hasn't been tearing anybody up either. He started the first 2 games of the season and was benched and then came back on in week 14 against Detroit. Opposite of McNabb, Jackson seems to play better away then home, although his home games have been close ones that could have went either way...

In 3 of Minnesotas home games they were listed as percentage underdogs with a range of 24% > 42% chance of winning - they won 2 & lost 1. In 4 they were listed as favorites in the percent range of 66% > 96% - they won 3 & lost 1. In 1 game they were listed as a 50% chance of winning - they won that... Minnesota is currently listed as 30% to 35% underdogs.

Key points to watch for: RBs - Brian Westbrook for Philadelphia & Adrian Peterson for Minnesota. Which ever team can control the others RB will probably be the difference in winning and losing. Minnesota has a much better run defense than Philadelphia. Minnesota also has to find some glue or super-sticky gloves for Peterson to wear during this game...
Pass-Happy Reid will probably challenge Minnesota's secondary with a pass-first offense, but only if they're running the ball effectively.

If Minnesota is to win they must first score early and keep a lead. They must keep Westbrook under a 100 yds & out of the endzone and have DE Jared Allen and DT Kevin Williams continue their very good ball defending. Pressure on McNabb wouldn't hurt either... Which in turn would put the screws to the pass-first offense.

For Philadelphia to win they have to have the right McNabb playing and Westbrook has to break free and help out with more than 60-70 yds rushing, especially in the red zone. They also have to corral Minn. RB Peterson and the receivers have to hold on to the ball when thrown it, which they seem of lately to be slacking on, not helping McNabb and his mood...The Eagles have the talent but they also have the tendency to self-destruct...MY PICK: MINNESOTA


Superbowl here we come............

2008 - Week 18/19 - Playoff Pairings

Wild-card Playoffs

Saturday, Jan. 3rd

Atlanta @ Arizona - 4:30pm
Indianapolis @ San Diego - 8:00pm


Sunday, Jan. 4th

Baltimore @ Miami - 1:00pm
Philadelphia @ Minnesota - 4:30pm

---
Divisional Playoffs

Saturday, Jan. 10 / Sunday, Jan. 11

TBD @ Carolina
TBD @ N.Y. Giants
TBD @ Tennessee
TBD @ Pittsburgh

2008 - Week 17 - All Games

AFC Teams already in Playoffs:

Tenn
Indy
Pitt

AFC teams needing win and/or help to make it in Playoffs:

Miami
N.E.
Jets
Balt.
Denver
S.D.

NFC teams already in Playoffs:

N.Y.G.
Atl.
Carolina
Ariz.

NFC teams needing win and/or help to make it in Playoffs:

Dallas
Phill.
T.B.
Minn.
Chi.

This week will be a hodge podge of mixed teams, some playing because they have to others playing because they need wins or just to prove to themselves they're still good. So makes it hard to pick winners this week, because of sit out players or teams/players who just want it over - vs - teams/players who still have some pride or fight in them...

ALL MY PICKS ARE SUBJECT TO LATE MINUTE CHANGES. PLEASE CHECK BACK OFTEN SO NOT TO MISS UP-DATED PICK CHOICES. THANK YOU...

The following are my picks:

ATLANTA - Can get the second seed and a bye if they win. It is St. Louis after all...

NEW ENGLAND - New England is playing well offensively when it matters; their defense is vulnerable but good enough, they need to win...

KANSAS CITY - Kansas City continues to play hard despite being over matched in talent about every week, not this week, but a win here will not save Edwards job. Bye, Bye...

GREEN BAY - Detroit will be making history this week as 1st team ever 0-16... This year Rod Marinelli has been the Tigers Alan Tramble of the Lions. Hung out to die...

INDIANAPOLIS - Maybe, just maybe, Dungy will play his starters long enough to get a win and to stay in game shape. If not, then seriously, I don't expect them to go far in playoffs... That has been Dungys downfall when playoff time hits, not only in Indy but also T.B., he likes to rest players...

MINNESOTA - The Giants have already locked up home field in the playoffs but we're told they will not rest players this game, want-a bet?... Besides Minn. needs the win just to make sure they go to playoffs on a postive note...

NEW ORLEANS - Carolina is in, plays bad on road & N.O. will still play good & hard at home...

PITTSBURGH - They might rest some players later in game, but playing against Cleveland they could take the day off...

TAMPA BAY - Tampa needs win and lucky them they play Oakland. Chuckie should be smiling...

HOUSTON - Houston is a talent powerhouse @ home and Chicago has just been damn lucky...

SAN FRANCISCO - They're going to end this year in style and Washington will see to it...

BALTIMORE - Baltimore needs a win and Jacksonville is not going to stand in their way...

MIAMI - Hey Brett! Surprise, Surprise....you lose again.. Retire will Ya.....It's been great, but show's over, go sell some more jeans...

PHILADELPHIA - Both teams need a win and Romo had some illness bug this week, so McNabb should please the home crowd this week...

SEATTLE - Seattle is out to send Holmgren with good stats and Arizona since clinching title spot 2 weeks ago have just shown up to games and practiced...

SUNDAY NIGHT GAME - SAN DIEGO - They have been playing forward, while Denver has been playing backwards, which is good, I've never liked that beady eyed Shanahan...

2008 - Week 16 - All Games

Sorry for the abbreviated version this week of picks, but too much at hand and too little time...

COLTS

DALLAS

CINCINNATI

NEW ORLEANS

PITTSBURGH

MIAMI

SAN FRANCISCO

NEW ENGLAND

TAMPA BAY

SEATTLE

HOUSTON

DENVER

PHILADELPHIA

MINNESOTA

SUNDAY NITE GAME - - CAROLINA - 26 / NY GIANTS - 24

MONDAY NITE GAME - - CHICAGO

2008 Playoff Picture

Playoff Look as of 12/21/2008


AFC

1. Tennessee Titans 12-2#=
2. Pittsburgh Steelers 11-3#=
3. New York Jets 9-5
4. Denver Broncos 8-6
5. Indianapolis Colts 11-4*
6. Baltimore Ravens 10-5
7. Miami Dolphins 9-5
8. New England Patriots 9-5
9. Houston Texans 7-7
10. Buffalo Bills 6-8
11. San Diego Chargers 6-8
12. Jacksonville Jaguars 5-10
13. Cleveland Browns 4-10
14. Oakland Raiders 3-11
15. Cincinnati Bengals 2-11-1
16. Kansas City Chiefs 2-12

#-Clinched division
=-Clinched 1st round bye
*-Clinched 5th seed in AFC Playoffs

NFC

1. New York Giants 11-3#
2. Carolina Panthers 11-3*
3. Minnesota Vikings 9-5
4. Arizona Cardinals 8-6#
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-5
6. Atlanta Falcons 9-5
8. Philadelphia Eagles 8-5-1
8. Dallas Cowboys 9-6
9. Chicago Bears 8-6
10. Washington Redskins 7-7
11. New Orleans Saints 7-7
12. Green Bay Packers 5-9
13. San Francisco 49ers 5-9
14. Seattle Seahawks 3-11
15. St. Louis Rams 2-12
16. Detroit Lions 0-14

#-Clinched division
=-Clinched 1st round bye
*-Clinched playoff spot

Week 15 Thursday Nite game Recap

Click on game title below for complete game stats. from NFL.com


New Orleans @ Chicago


Ok this is what I predicted on my analysis: "I see Brees throwing 240 to 275 yds, 2 int, 2 touchdowns, Bush & Thomas combine for 125 - 130 yds total and maybe a TD.

I see Orton throwing 200 to 220 yds, 1 int, 1-TD, Forte, Jones and Peterson combine for 145 - 165 total and 2 - TDs"

also

"Look for Saints to box up the front to try and stop Forte, but that will only give Orton opportunity to throw middle and secondary to Davis & Hester.Brees will start fast and early throwing trying to rock Chi. defense, so that Bush & Thomas have room, I don't see it working, look for 2 to 3 sacks in fact...MY PICK - CHICAGO"

Lets see how I did;

Brees had 226 passing yds - short of what I said he would have. He did have 2 int and 2 tds, I was right on that prediction. Bush & Thomas combine for 117 yds with Karney & Brees adding 2 more for 119 total, with 1 td, just a little short on yardage of what I said, but correct on TD prediction for them..

Orton had 172 passing yds - he was was short of what I said of him getting. He also had 2 - ints but 0 - tds - I predicted 1 int & 1 td. Forte & Peterson only got 49 yds rushing combined with Orton adding 6 more for total of 55 - way short of what I thought they would get. Jones was not a factor. They did however get the 2 tds I predicted.

Davis & Hester did get some passes for a total of 58 yds. Brees did come out throwing and Bush & Thomas had some open room. However Chicago had just 1 sack compared to my saying maybe 2 or 3..

Saints did go over their road avg. (5 -42 ) for penalties with 5 for 97 yds while Chicago stay right about avg (3 - 27) for home games penalties with 4 - 24 yds...

Chicago wins 27 to 24...

2008 - Week 15 - Sunday games

ALL MY PICKS ARE SUBJECT TO LATE MINUTE CHANGES. PLEASE CHECK BACK OFTEN SO NOT TO MISS UP-DATED PICK CHOICES. THANK YOU...


NEW FEATURE ADDED: To check injury report from NFL, just click on the bold game titles above each analysis...Thank You...

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta

Another short road trip for TB crew, but it doesn't seem to matter, they lose away, no matter the distance.. KS-IS (knobby self-inflicted stats) are:

Last 3 road games avg. for TB is 30.3 pts for & 28.3 against, turnover avg on road is 2.0 with penalties at 6 -46yds...

Last 3 home game avg. for Carolina is 34.6 pts. for & 24 pts against, turnover avg @ home is 0.7 with penalties at 4 -37yds.....

Atlanta is 5 - 1 @ home and 8-1 when they score first. This is another game where both teams need a win to hold on to whatever little chance they have for playoffs...MY PICK - ATLANTA

Tennessee @ Houston

First 2 - 1/2 or 3 quarters will be a reg game, than IMO Tenn. will start dropping their starters and Houston playing for pride, depending on how far behind they are, will make a run to win the game...MY PICK - TENNESSEE

Green Bay @ Jacksonville

Another game where both teams are really out of playoffs unless all of a sudden the other 30 teams all die.....But they should be playing at least for pride between these 2 and which one will have more pride?

Jacksonville is 1 - 5 @ home --- Green Bay is 2 - 4 on road

KS-IS for game are:

Last 3 road game avg. for GB is 24 pts. for & 32.6 pts. against, turnover avg. on road is 1.8 with penalties at 6 -54 yds.

Last 3 homes game avg. for Jac. is 14.3 pts. for & 25.6 pts. against, turnover avg. @ home is 1.5 with penalties at 6 -55 yds.

So where's the difference between these two, since above stats reflect very poorly for both...
Coaches! Jack Del Rio IMO has lost his players and locker room in the last mth. or so. Mike McCarthy on the other hand was thoroughly disgusted with losing last week and I see him getting his team up and playing for something...MY PICK - GREEN BAY


San Francisco @ Miami

Something has happened to SF in just the last 3/4 games, they are on a terror streak. This week they bring their terror train to Miami who is in a three-way tie atop the AFC East with the Jets and Patriots.

KS-IS for game is:

Last 3 road game avg. for SF is 18.3 pts. for & 22.3 pts. against, turnover avg for road is 2.2 with penalties @ 8 -66 NOTE:( if you throw in @ home vs Jets game their game avg. gos to 20 pts. for & 20.3 pts. against)

Last 3 home game avg. for Miami is 22 pts. for & 27.1 pts against, turnover avg. for home is 1.0 with penalties @ 5 -41 yds.

At time of writing this Niners Frank Gore is questionable for playing (ankle) as is CB Nate Clements (fractured thumb)

So what does Knobbys muddy tire tales ( KMTT) tell me about this game:

Look for SF Shaun Hill to get 170 to 185 passing yds, 1 td, 1 int. Gore ?, Foster, Robinson will combine for 90 to 110 yds rushing, 1 td. Look also for defense to get a couple of sacks and 2 to 3 turnovers and maybe a defensive TD.

On Miami side look for Chad Pennington to get 195 to 205 passing yds, 1 tds, 2 int. Brown ,Williams, Cobbs will combine for 130 to 140 yds. rushing, 2 tds. Miami defense should come up with also a couple of sacks and maybe 1 turnover.

Don't look for more than a 1/2 pt win...MY PICK - SAN FRANCISCO


Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

WOW! 2 rough & tumble teams here again this year. Pittsburgh can wrap up the AFC North title with a win, while the Ravens with a win would deadlock the teams at 10-4 with 2 games left. So let's get right to KS-IS for the game:

Last 3 road game avg for Pittsburgh is 31.3 pts. for & 8.6 pts. against with turnover avg. for road is 1.0, with penalties @ 7 - 62 yds.

Last 3 home game avg for Baltimore is 29.6 pts for & 9 pts against with turnover avg. for home is 1.5, with penalties @ 7 - 52 yds.

So what does KMTT speak to me about this game?

Turnovers, penalties will decide who gets the last field goal to win.

Look for Big Ben to get 195 to 210 passing yds, 1 td, 2 int., Parker, Moore, Russell to co - share a very stingy 58 to 68 yds rushing, 1 td, 1 turnover.

On Baltimore side, Flacco could get 165 to 175 yds. passing, 1 td, 1int., McClain, Rice, McGahee will probably get 85 to 95 combine yds. rushing, 1 td.

Baltimore defense will probably get more sacks on Ben than Steelers do on Flacco, and both defenses will probably get a couple turnovers...MY PICK - BALTIMORE


SUNDAY NITE GAME:

N. Y. Giants @ Dallas

Up-Dated analysis: 12/12

Jacobs is out and Barber is still questionable... so how much of a impact will that have on game? Jacobs is a workhorse and would have rough & bullied his way through Cowboys O-line, that eases their job and maybe puts more pressure on Manning to try running himself more, not good. Barber was not really a factor last week, what killed it for Dallas was player Brain Farts.

I still see trouble on the field rising from Cowboy camp, and dare I say that some giants could help stir the pot a little, by words or actions???? I stay with my pick as stated below...
-- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Well,well, well their back again to do battle, who will be the winner this time?

Lets starts with our KS-IS and see from there:

Last 3 road game avg. for NYG is, 32 pts. for & 22.3 pts. against, turnover avg for road is 1.0 with penalty avg. of 6 - 50 yds.

Last 3 home game avg. for Dallas is, 27.3 pts. for & 13.3 pts. against, turnover avg. for home is 1.2 with penalty avg. of 6 - 52 yds.

Dallas needs this win to stay in the mess of the wild-card chances, Giants with a lost could move down a notch from top spot. Cowboys seem to have 'special' problems amongst themselves, that reflect on the field, these 'special' problems especially come to surface when losing late in games. Giants also are having their share of 'special' troubles, but I don't think it's what made them play poorly last week.

My KMTT tells me to look for:

NYG - E. Manning to get 222 to 232 passing yds, 2 tds, 0 int., Ward, Bradshaw, Ware?, Manning to combine for 97 to 105 yds. rushing, 1 td, 1 turnover.

Cowboys - T. Romo to get 247 to 257 passing yds, 2 tds, 2 ints., Barber? Choice, Romo stack up together for 93 to 100 yds. rushing, 1 tds, 1 turnover.

Both defenses to get sacks in (2/3 a piece)...Special teams maybe for a win...MY PICK - N.Y. GIANTS 31 - DALLAS 28


Rest of Games:

Washington
Seattle
NY Jets
COLTS
Kansas City
Arizona
Carolina
New England


Still to come Monday Nite Game..........

2008 - Week 15 - Thursday Nite Game

New Orleans @ Chicago

Drew Brees, Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas, Marques Colston and Lance Moore
-vs-
Kyle Orton, Forté, Jones and Peterson, Davis and Hester

Both squads need a win, to keep some hope alive for playoff spot.

Last 3 road game stats for N.O. is 23.3 pts for / 25.6 pts against...Turnover avg. for road is 1.9 with 5 penalties for 42yds... N.O. this year is 1 win and 5 losses on road

Last 3 home game stats for Chi. is 21.3 pts for / 18 pts against...Turnover avg. for home is 1.8 with 3 penalties for 27yds... Chi. is 4 wins and 2 losses at home

I see Brees throwing 240 to 275 yds, 2 int, 2 touchdowns, Bush & Thomas combine for 125 - 130 yds total and maybe a TD.

I see Orton throwing 200 to 220 yds, 1 int, 1-TD, Forte, Jones and Peterson combine for 145 - 165 total and 2 - TDs

It's going to be cold out there, temp is predicted to be around 15º to 20º...

Look for Saints to box up the front to try and stop Forte, but that will only give Orton opportunity to throw middle and secondary to Davis & Hester.

Brees will start fast and early throwing trying to rock Chi. defense, so that Bush & Thomas have room, I don't see it working, look for 2 to 3 sacks in fact...MY PICK - CHICAGO

...........................................

2008 Playoff Picture as of Week 15

AFC

1. Tennessee Titans (12-1)*
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3)
3. Denver Broncos (8-5)**
4. New York Jets (8-5)
5. Indianapolis Colts (9-4)***
6. Baltimore Ravens (9-4)
7. Miami Dolphins (8-5)****
8. New England Patriots (8-5)

*-Clinched division & 1st round bye
**-Denver holds head-to-head tiebreaker over New York
***-Indianapolis holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Baltimore
****-Miami has better conference record than New England

NFC

1. New York Giants (11-2)*
2. Carolina Panthers (10-3)
3. Minnesota Vikings (8-5)**
4. Arizona Cardinals (8-5)*
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-4)
6. Dallas Cowboys (8-5)
7. Atlanta Falcons (8-5)
8. Philadelphia Eagles (7-5-1)
9. Washington Redskins (7-6)
10. Chicago Bears (7-6)
11. New Orleans Saints (7-6)

*-Clinched division
**-Minnesota has better conference record than Arizona

Another season almost at a close.......

Week 14 - Sunday Games Recap

Start with Washington/Baltimore game, I wrote in my analyzing that " Turnovers and penalties might do Baltimore in , but, Washington will have to take advantage of them if & when they happen. I don't see Portis running very well in this game against the Ravens rugged run defense. Baltimore probably will be going to LeRon McClain over former starter Willis McGahee again and look for him to post 55 to 65 yds rushing...MY PICK - BALTIMORE"

So, here's what happened: McClain got 61 yds rushing, McGahee 32. Portis just 32yds. In the turnover department QB Campbell had 2 int. and QB Flacco had 1 int. none resulted in a td. Both teams had 2 fumbles with only Baltimore capitalising on their recovery for 1 td. Both were very even in penalties... Baltimore wins 24 to 10


Dallas/Pittsburgh game, I wrote in my analyzing that: "This game IMO will be decided by which team gets the most sacks/int." MY PICK - PITTSBURGH

So, here's what happened: Dallas had 3 sacks for 16 yds. Pittsburgh had 5 sacks for 36 yds. Romo had 3 interceptions. Roethlisberger had 0 int. Pittsburgh wins 20 to 13


Atlanta/New Orleans game, I wrote in my analyzing that: " N.O. has to stop Turner from running wild and gaining 95 to 110 yds." and "Brees needs no INTs thrown!" and " Let Bush and Thomas get involved " MY PICK - NEW ORLEANS

So, here's what happened: Turner had just 61 yds. Brees had 0 int. and Bush & Thomas combined for 182 yds rushing. New Orleans wins 29 to 25


Jacksonville/Chicago game, writing in my analyzing I said: "Chicago has to hold Drew & Taylor to 45yds or less apiece and try to keep Garrard from going mobile and getting balls to Jones & Williams . Jacksonville just has to try and contain Forte and Hester, Orton will do his thing so no worry there...MY PICK - CHICAGO"

So, here's what happened: Chicago came close to holding D & T, Drew had 55yds rushing and 50 yds in 2 kick returns and Taylor had 53 rushing. As for M. Jones and R. Williams, Jones had just 34 yds receiving and Williams had 16. Chicagos Forte he had 69 rushing & 37 receiving, Hester had 80 yds receiving and 22 yds on 3 punt returns. Chicago wins 23 to 10


Houston/Green Bay game, what I wrote was: " Mr Schaub should put some numbers up." and "Texans have to watch them interceptions." and "As for Houstons defense, they need to blitz, last 2 games they haven't had 1 sack. If Rodgers is given to much time he'll burn Houstons secondary. Packers RB Ryan Grant might be able to do some damage if they run him outside." MY PICK - GREEN BAY

So, what happen? Mr Schaub had a freaking 414 passing yds! Houston had 2 sacks for 16yds. Rodgers had 295 passing yds and the 2 top receivers had 149 yds combined. He did spread it around the secondary. as for Grant he had 104 rushing yds and 8 yds receiving. Houston wins 24 to 21...

Monday Nite Game - Week 14 - 2008

UP-DATE: ALL MY PICKS ARE SUBJECT TO LATE MINUTE CHANGES. PLEASE CHECK BACK OFTEN SO NOT TO MISS UP-DATED PICK CHOICES. THANK YOU...


Tampa Bay @ Carolina

Talk about 2 teams as even as can be, you have it here, both are 6-0 at home and both are 3-3 on the road. The only thing that stands out between them is the turnover avg. Tampa Bays turnover avg. for road games is 2.3 with penalty avg. of 6 -48yds. Turnover avg. for home games for Carolina is 0.8 with penalty avg. of 7-53yds.
So just from them stats. Carolina needs to turn up the pressure on Garcia and maybe work on getting some fumbles.

Carolinas DE Julius Peppers needs to get tougher this game and find a way to get around TBs OLT Donald Penn and put pressure on Garcia. Tampa Bay will again feed the ball alot to Warrick Dunn and Cadillac Williams, if pass rush defense gets to heavy.

Carolina can beat any team on the ground when RB DeAngelo Williams is having a good game, like 9 TDs in his last 5 games. But, WR Steve Smith will have to be tops Monday nite also. Carolina has to try and stop Bucs MLB Ruud, at times he seems to have a natural attraction to football carriers and knocking them for losses...

Look for Carolinas Williams and Stewart to combined for 110 to 115 yds. look for WR Smith to get 95 to 100 yds receiving and maybe one TD. QB Delhomme probably will have one INT.

Look for Tampa Bays Antonio Bryant to get 55 to 60 yds receiving and even though Garcia could throw 220 to 230 yards, the 2 turnovers will negate that.

Over all this should be a good game to watch, with alot riding on the outcome...I just don't see Carolina collapsing at home like Tampa does on the road. Like so many other games around, look for sacks and TOs to be the deciding factor in tonites game. TB HAS ALLOWED 10 SACKS IN THE LAST 2 GAMES. CAR DE JULIUS PEPPERS HAS 7 SACKS IN THE LAST 4 GAMES... MY PICK - CAROLINA

Week 14 - Sunday Games - 2008

UP-DATE: ALL MY PICKS ARE SUBJECT TO LATE MINUTE CHANGES. PLEASE CHECK BACK OFTEN SO NOT TO MISS UP-DATED PICK CHOICES. THANK YOU...

Houston @ Green Bay

Whats up with GBs defense? allowing 85 pts in 2 games! Matt Schaub looks to be returning for Houston, but he wasn't all that great when he was playing earlier. If GBs' defense continues their pt giveaway though this week, Mr Schaub should put some numbers up. Texans RB Steve Slaton seems to be a all around football player (running inside, running outside and seems to handle job well as a pass catcher also). Texans have to watch them interceptions.

As for Houstons defense, they need to blitz, last 2 games they haven't had 1 sack. If Rodgers is given to much time he'll burn Houstons secondary. Packers RB Ryan Grant might be able to do some damage if they run him outside.

GB last 3 home games pts. avg. is 34 for & 17.6 allowed. For grass games their pt. avg. is 25.6 for & 21.2 allowed. Turnover avg. is 0.8 and penalty avg. is 9 -76yds

Houston pt. avg.I split here because of maybe Schaub returning. Last 3 road games pts. avg. is 21.3 for & 22.3 allowed. Schaub road game pts. avg. is 18.6 for & 33 allowed. For grass games their pt. avg is 23.4 for & 24.9 allowed. turnover avg. is 2.0 and penalty avg. is 5 -35yds.

SIDE NOTE: you will notice Houstons defense has improved greatly since beginning of season...MY PICK - GREEN BAY


Jacksonville @ Chicago

Well these 2 teams have been very disappointing this year, and I doubt if either one will be in playoffs - so we have to chose which team will fight a little harder just for fights sake?

Jacksonville last 3 road games pts. avg. is 24.6 for & 21.6 allowed. For grass games 17.9 pts for & 23.8 allowed. Turnover avg. is 1.7 and penalty avg. is 7 - 54yds.

Chicago last 3 home games pts. avg. is 29.6 for & 28.3 allowed. For grass games 22.4 for & 27 allowed. Turnover avg. is 2.0 and penalty avg. is 4 -32yds.

Forte (with over 1,000 yards rushing and can put good numbers up on both rushing and receiving out of the backfield) and Hester (must be watched carefully) is the Bears shining stars. Orton has not done crap since coming back from ankle injury, maybe he should sit.

League’s best rushing QB, Jacksonville’s David Garrard is it mostly for Jacksonville, with some flair from time to time from Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. Pass wise it comes down to WRs Matt Jones and Reggie Williams who can hold their own.

Chicago has to hold Drew & Taylor to 45yds or less apiece and try to keep Garrard from going mobile and getting balls to Jones & Williams . Jacksonville just has to try and contain Forte and Hester, Orton will do his thing so no worry there...MY PICK - CHICAGO

Atlanta @ New Orleans

High stepping Brees and the Saints will be trying to ground Turner and the Falcons. N.O. has to stop Turner from running wild and gaining 95 to 110 yds. They can't do it by jamming the front either because Ryan will then get to WRs Roddy White and Michael Jenkins.

Brees needs no INTs thrown! Saints also need to get away from the do or die passing game head coach Sean Payton seems to plan. Let Bush and Thomas get involved and maybe they can pull a win out.

Atlanta last 3 road game pts avg is 20.0 for & 14.3 allowed. For dome games it's 32.2 for & 21.2 allowed. Turnover avg. is 1.7 and penalty avg. is 5 - 38yds.

New Orleans last 3 home game pts avg is 40.6 for & 21.3 allowed. For dome games it's 31.2 for & 22.2 allowed. Turnover avg. is 1.6 and penalty avg. is 7 -63yds...MY PICK - NEW ORLEANS


Dallas @ Pittsburgh

Game of the Week!!!!
This game IMO will be decided by which team gets the most sacks/int. Dallas has have improved defensively in recent weeks but Pittsburgh has the 2nd highest sack avg. in the NFL.

Dallas last 3 ROMO road games pts avg. is 23.0 for & 12.0 allowed. For grass games it's 20.7 for & 17.7 allowed. Turnover avg. is 2.3 and penalty avg. is 9 - 63yds.

Pittsburgh last 3 home game pts. avg. is 19.3 for & 14.6 allowed. For grass games it's 19.8 for & 15.0 allowed. Turnover avg. is 1.5 and penalty avg. is 6 - 51yds.

MY PICK - PITTSBURGH


OTHER PICKS -

COLTS
MINN.
TENN.
MIAMI
NYG
DENVER
NYJ
N. ENG.
ARIZ.


Washington @ Baltimore - Sunday Nite Game

Type Of Turf: Artificial
Meeting Of The Year: Only
Season Record: Washington 7-5-0 Baltimore 8-4-0
Season Record Vs. Spread: Washington 5-6-1 Baltimore 9-3-0
Home/Road Record: Washington (R) 4-1-0 Baltimore (H) 4-1-0
Home/Road Record Vs. Spread: Washington (R) 3-1-1 Baltimore (H) 4-1-0
Record On Artificial Turf: Washington 3-1-0 Baltimore 5-3-0
Record On Artificial Turf Vs. Spread: Washington 2-1-1 Baltimore 5-3-0


Baltimore Injuries:

12/7/2008
Lamar Divens, DT
Doubtful - Did Not Participate in Practice (shoulder)
12/7/2008
David Hale, G
Doubtful - Did Not Participate in Practice (ankle)
12/7/2008
Jared Gaither, T
questionable - Limited Participation in Practice (shoulder)
12/7/2008
Derrick Mason, WR
questionable - Full Participation in Practice (shoulder)
12/7/2008
Ed Reed, S
questionable - Limited Participation in Practice (thigh)
12/7/2008
Samari Rolle, CB
questionable - Limited Participation in Practice (thigh)
12/7/2008
Nick Greisen, LB
Probable - Full Participation in Practice (back)
12/7/2008
Marcus Maxwell, WR
Probable - Full Participation in Practice (hip)
12/7/2008
Willis McGahee, RB
Probable - Full Participation in Practice (illness)
12/7/2008
Bart Scott, LB
Probable - Full Participation in Practice (shoulder)
12/7/2008
Fabian Washington, CB
Probable - Full Participation in Practice (shoulder)

Washington Injuries:

12/7/2008
Marcus Washington, LB
out - Did Not Participate in Practice (ankle)
12/7/2008
Andre Carter, DE
questionable - Limited Participation in Practice (foot)
12/7/2008
London Fletcher, LB
questionable - Did Not Participate in Practice (foot)
12/7/2008
Kedric Golston, DT
questionable - Did Not Participate in Practice (ankle)
12/7/2008
Cornelius Griffin, DT
questionable - Limited Participation in Practice (shoulder/abdomen)
12/7/2008
Clinton Portis, RB
questionable - Limited Participation in Practice (knee/back)
12/7/2008
Shawn Springs, CB
questionable - Did Not Participate in Practice (calf)
12/7/2008
Alfred Fincher, LB
Probable - Full Participation in Practice (non injury)
12/7/2008
LaRon Landry, S
Probable - Did Not Participate in Practice (calf)
12/7/2008
Pete Kendall, G
Probable - Full Participation in Practice (knee)
12/7/2008
Chris Samuels, T
Probable - Full Participation in Practice (knee)
12/7/2008
Fred Smoot, CB
Probable (not injury related)
12/7/2008
Randy Thomas, G
Probable - Full Participation in Practice (neck)
12/5/2008


Turnovers and penalties might do Baltimore in , but, Washington will have to take advantage of them if & when they happen. I don't see Portis running very well in this game against the Ravens rugged run defense. Baltimore probably will be going to LeRon McClain over former starter Willis McGahee again and look for him to post 55 to 65 yds rushing...MY PICK - BALTIMORE

More games to come.........

Week14 - Thursday Night Game - 2008

Oakland @ San Diego

OAK 29th OFF; SD 27th DEF

OAK 10th RUN; SD 15th VS. RUN

OAK 32nd PASS; SD 31st VS. PASS

OAK 30th PTS; SD 21st PTS ALLOWED

SD 15th OFF; OAK 25th DEF

SD 26th RUN; OAK 29th VS. RUN

SD 9th PASS; OAK 8th VS. PASS

SD 12th PTS; OAK 18th PTS ALLOWED

SD 21st TO/TA; OAK 10th TO/TA

SD HAS WON 5 STRAIGHT VS. OAK AT HOME.

LADAINIAN TOMLINSON HAS RUSHED FOR 1,815 YDS AND 18 TDS ON 377 CAREER CARRIES VS. OAK.

SD HAS 8 LOSSES IN 12 GAMES IN 2008; THAT’S AS MANY AS IT HAD IT ITS PREVIOUS 26 GAMES ENTERING THE ’08 SEASON.

SD HAS NOT LOST IN DECEMBER IN EACH OF THE LAST 2 SEASONS.

OAK DOESN’T HAVE A WIDEOUT WITH MORE THAN 15 CATCHES; RONALD CURRY AND JAVON WALKER HAVE THAT MANY CATCHES ENTERING WEEK 14.

ZACH MILLER CAUGHT 5 PASSES FOR 95 YDS AND 1 TD VS. SD IN WEEK 4.

Ok, after all them stats, with games like these, it usually comes down to the (KNS) which stands for Knobbys Negligible Stats. Like SD has given up more pts in the last 3 home games then Oakland has in their last 3 road games. Also remember the earlier game this year, Oakland had 4 sacks and 2 interceptions. Oh and Oakland lost @ home to Denver and than beat Denver on the road and won on the road @ KC but than lost to KC @ home.

I do not look for a repeat blow-out by SD again this game, in fact if Oakland plays good ,solid football, and we see Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden, and Michael Bush with some good combined running stats, than they hold LTs running to 75 - 80 yds and get at least 2 sacks and maybe a INT or 2, Oakland can have a happy lockerroom...MY PICK - OAKLAND

Sunday games coming up soon............

2008 Playoff Picture

Week 14 is upon us and talk of who's going to the playoffs starts to get real interesting. Below is the present playoff picture for the NFC teams and AFC teams

NFC
Division Leaders
1. GIANTS 11-1
2. BUCCANEERS 9-3
3. VIKINGS 7-5
4. CARDINALS 7-5

Wildcard
5. PANTHERS 9-3
6. FALCONS 8-4

Still In it
7. COWBOYS 8-4
8. REDSKINS 7-5
9. EAGLES 6-5-1
10. BEARS 6-6


AFC
Division Leaders
1. TITANS 11-1
2. STEELERS 9-3
3. JETS 8-4
4. BRONCOS 7-5

Wild-card teams
5. COLTS 8-4
6. RAVENS 8-4

Still Alive
7. PATRIOTS 7-5
8. DOLPHINS 7-5
9. BILLS 6-6

Week 13 - Sunday Games - 2008

Carolina @ Green Bay

Carolina stats for last 3 road games and all grass played games combined are: pts. for 39.6 / pts. against 41.

Green Bay stats for last 3 home games and all grass played games combined are: pts. for 56.5 / pts. against 34.1.

Carolina has a avg. turnover rate of 2.0 with penalty avg. of 7 - 40yds for road games.

Green Bay has a avg. turnover rate of 0.6 with a penalty avg. of 9 - 82yds for home games.

Green Bays defense against the run is like 'Hello are we here', but can Carolina take advantage of that fact? They are going to have to considering Panthers QB Jake Delhomme has been bringing a water pistol to a cannon fight the last 3 weeks.

Carolina's run defense is better than GB but still lacking with DE Julius Peppers shining bright.

Watch for Green Bays RB Ryan Grant to possibly make another good showing. Also they have to limit sacks on Rodgers and hold down the penalties. Carolina's RB team of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart will be hard to control but doable... MY PICK - GREEN BAY

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay

New Orleans stats for last 3 road games and all grass games combined are: pts. for 45 / pts against 57.

New Orleans has a turnover rate avg. of 1.7 and a penalty avg. of 4 - 41yds for road games.

Tampa Bay stats for last 3 home games and all grass games combined are: pts. for 45.7 / pts. against 24.

Tampa Bay has a turnover rate avg. of 1.2 and a penalty avg. of 7 - 65yds for home games.

Watching Drew Brees pass is like watching 4th of July fireworks, lots of them, and since their first meeting earlier this year, the Bucs' pass defense has been like clouds and rain on 4th of July, covering everything and putting a damper on QBs. Will Reggie Bush return, looks like it, but I don't expect miracles from him... but Saints can use him to take some pressure off Brees, even if as a decoy...

Tampa's offense is not good (don't be fooled by last weeks 38 pts) but, QB Jeff Garcia although not the caliber of Brees should be able to move around and find holes in Saints secondary defense. RBs Warrick Dunn and Cadillac Williams will have to have good numbers...MY PICK - NEW ORLEANS

Atlanta @ San Diego

Atlanta stats for last 3 road games and all grass games combined are: pts. for 38.2 / pts. against 36.8

Atlanta has a turnover rate avg. of 1.4 and a penalty avg. of 5 - 42yds for road games

San Diego stats for last 3 home games and all grass games combined are: pts. for 49.3 / pts. against 40.2

San Diego has a turnover rate avg. of 1.2 and a penalty avg. of 4 - 29yds for home games

The fine oiled train, with just a slip or two of a gear now and then, engineered by rookie QB Matt Ryan rides out west to take advantage of San Diego's tumbled old train station. Riding along with him will be WR Roddy White and RB Michael Turner. But will they have a derail when they meet up with SD's NT Jamal Williams.

Sitting at the SD train station waiting will be league leading QB in TD passes (23) and passer rating (103.3) Philip Rivers. Kicked back enjoying the view with him will be WR Vincent Jackson, and TE Antonio Gates, not to mention RB LaDainian Tomlinson. Of course they'll all have to get pass the Atl. caboose called DE John Abraham who rides to town tied for second in the NFL with 12 sacks...MY PICK - SAN DIEGO

Chicago @ Minnesota - Sunday Nite Game

Chicago stats for last 3 road games and all dome games combined are: pts.for38.8 / pts. against 39.4

Chicago has a turnover rate avg. of 1.8 and a penalty avg. of 6-56yds for road games

Minnesota stats for last 3 home games and all dome games combined are: pts. for 50.1 / pts. against 30.5

Minnesota has a turnover avg. of 1.2 and a penalty avg. of 7-54yds for home games.

I don't think this game will be a hell - raiser like the first meeting this year, but points could be scored, but how? Will the Bears concentrate on stopping Vikings RB Adrian Peterson? [423 rushing yards, seven TDs in three career games vs. the Bears] Or will Minnesota defense harass Orton into making a couple of Int? [185 passes without an interception] Or will Chicago's DE Adewale Ogunleye and DT Tommie Harris get pass Minnesota's O-line and drive QB Gus Frerotte into retirement? One of them will walk away in 1st place, UNLESS they TIE!!!!!!!!! now that would be a shame on the NFL overtime rules again................MY PICK - MINNESOTA

Score tab: Minnesota 27 - Chicago 22

Kansas City @ Oakland

Fumbles / Int. and penalties will kill Oakland....MY PICK - KANSAS CITY

Just to see and for fun I'll predict the score to be KC - 16 / OAK - 14

more games to come, stay tune.....

Week 13 - Turkey Day Games

WELL, WELL, WELL what a week 12 was. I went out on a limb on several games and came up somewhat empty, but overall I pulled in 9 out of 16...So on to week 13 and this weeks Thursday games

Tennessee @ Detroit

Tenn. is goin' be hopping after losing to the Jets, and Det. does not have any type of arsenal to stop them. Det. starts out lately like gang busters and then fades away just like Rods job is...

Does anyone think Det. will actually win this week, I mean last week they had a chance, 17 to 0 earlier in game but for some reason, their defense can not hold a lead. Could it be that Marinelli's decision to hire his daughter's husband (Joe Berry) as his defensive coordinator so far looks like a mistake, and it's a mistake that Marinelli would never admit for family reasons....MY PICK - TENNESSEE

Seattle @ Dallas

Ok, Hasselbeck is back and did pretty good last week @ home against Washington, but they travel to the Big D this week which will put a crimp in more practice time for Hassel and crew. Romo look good coming back from his injury, so I'm throwing all my chips in...MY PICK -DALLAS

Arizona @ Philadelphia

Donovan McNabb is again the QB, after being told to go sit in the corner by Coach Reid last week, after McNabb has had some terrible outings these last few weeks. But, besides that the Eagles defense is still strong, giving up a avg. of 16.4 pts @ in home games and 19.4 pts when playing on grass slabs. Arizona on the other hand gives up a 25.5 pt avg. in road games and a 28.0 pt avg when playing on the green tundra...

McNabb needs to get his act together, Westbrook has to come out of his coma (injuries play heck on a body) and the offense needs to quit giving up the ball so much which might be hard to do, with the Arizona creating them making them tied for second in the NFL with 22, including 12 forced fumbles.

Kurt Warner and crew ( WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin) just needs to play tight football and watch the penalties. Their run game has gone to la-la land and won't be helping much.

Look for maybe a kick return to go all the way for the Eagles at some point...MY PICK - PHILADELPHIA

Week 12 - 2008 Season - Sunday Games

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ DETROIT LIONS

OK, I know, I know why bother? and I'm even putting this game on top here. Well I feel crazy this week and 2 other reasons - turnovers, penalties. Actually you could say 4 reasons - the previous 3 and add Jason Hanson. Long history between these 2 and as bad as Det. has been AALLLL these years and as goooood as TB has been
AALLL these years, the records still show Det. leading the series 14 - 9... So call me crazy, say I've spent too much time @ the puter, or I must have got hold of some bad Strohs, BUT...MY PICK - LIONS

HOUSTON TEXANS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Look for more of a running game than passing, especially with news that Quinn has a broken finger. (Quinn broke his right index finger in the first half of Monday night's win over Buffalo)

Houstons RB Slaton can run and can put up yardage if allowed to (156 yds in week 11). Browns RB Lewis could also see more work against Houstons weak defense... just a little side note - The Browns could be big winners if they also give the ball more to RB Jerome Harrison, he has ran for 158 total yards with only 10 hand offs the past 2 weeks. (15.8 ypc)

As for the QBs - Rosenfels seems to have a tendency towards still throwing interceptions and I see in this game, him doing the same, expect at least 2. Quinn in his 3rd start (if he plays) will hold steady again, although maybe doing more hand offs...

Turnovers and weather will play a big part in this game, Houston has more of a chance to give the ball away than Cleveland does, so look for Cleveland to try to shake Sage... As for weather if the game is played in rainy, cold settings the Browns stand a much better chance of winning compared to Houstons where their passing game is better suited for fair/sunny weather...

Bottom line is if Browns can make Sage throw interceptions (2+) and Lewis can rush for a 100 yds, they can come away with a 1 or 2 pt. victory... Less then 2 interceptions and fair weather, could be the Texans walking down the aisle... Check the weather conditions before placing your bets boys & girls... MY PICK - BROWNS

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Will this be a repeat of this years earlier game or will Atl put the metal to the pedal and run over Carolina this week? Lets look, 1st Atl has a sight advantage in pts scored at home compared to Carolinas road scoring ( Panthers- 14.0/19.2 - - Falcons- 29.6/19.8). QBs, Delhomme and Ryan both are good, except that Delhomme has not had a good last 2 weeks completing just 17-of-46 passes. Ryan has had a few bad games, but is steady in all...

Panthers RBs Williams and Stewart seems to be hitting their stride together (31 att/ 134yds avg all games) but they seem to lose something when playing road games ( 24 att/ 98 yds avg road games). Falcons RBs Turner and Norwood seem to average better numbers at home( 36att/161yds avg. home games)

So what does all this mean? It means defense, sacks and interceptions, special teams. Carolina has to stop Turner from getting 100 yds, and they have to get at Ryan and they can boogie the night away. Atlanta just has to stop Williams & Stewart & get some good action from their special teams and Atl will dance the dance of stars... MY PICK - ATLANTA

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Adrian Peterson! He is the Vikings this year, NFL's leading rusher and they run him & run him.
Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor will run for Jacksonville. Jacksonville linebackers might stop Mr. P @ less than 100 yds, but only because their fast not big... Minnesota has to make sure they grap all the way around when they go tackling Mr. J-D or he'll bust them...

Minnesotas passing is lacking to say the least, but maybe it can take advantage this week of Jacksonvilles mistake riddled deep coverage. Jacksonville QB Garrard receivers are not helping him and there is no going deep with good success. Did someone mention Field Goal?

Peterson gets 100+ yds and Vikings take the ball deep, look for a Ryan Longwell kick to win it, Peterson get -100 yds and Jags hold on to the ball, we could see the Jaguars showing their spots... MY PICK - MINNESOTA

NEW YORK JETS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Will this be the week Tenn. gos down? Jacksonville flopped on me in the 2nd half last week. The numbers point towards another Titan victory, BUT the Jets are on their game now more than ever this year - The offense has come together under Favre and RB Thomas Jones and with their excellent kick return yardage. (look for about 26 - 29 carries with 115 - 118 yds from Jets RBs) But the Titans just don't seem to be easy push over this year, teams have stacked the wall against them to block the run ( look for about 28 - 30 carries with 117 - 120 yds from Titans RBs) and they just turn to passing and succeed that way. Which is what the Jets are poor at, short pass coverage to the TE, and their linebackers seem to blitz alot. So can the Jets turn around their defense mode on a dime this week? If they can make the defense adjustment, if Jones gets good rushing yardage and with maybe a little help from Leon Washington on special teams, they stand a good chance of upsetting the Titans...MY PICK - TENNESSEE

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

This game will not even be close to the one played in week 3, both teams need to win this week, but which one will walk away with the playoff chance? Don't look for Matt Cassel to do what he did against the Jets last week ( 400 yards and 3 touchdowns ), instead look for him to run for his life - Miami's blitz machine will be working just fine this game, so don't look for him to throw many deep ones to Randy Moss trying to take advantage of a somewhat weak Dolphins secondary. Which will leave Patroits RBs Sammy Morris, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Kevin Faulk needing to run inside alot but might not get many yds. ( look for 90 - 105 combined yards )

The Dolphins have different possibilities to use, RBs Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown will be hard to defend ( look for combined yardage of about 115 - 130 ) and WRs Greg Camarillo and Ted Ginn Jr. might have a very good day if Patroits secondary has a lackluster play attitude...

Dolphins one downfall might be their very weak kick return coverage... MY PICK - MIAMI


Sunday Night Game:
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

2 teams this year that have opposite problems, so we're told, Colts have poor rushing defense, Chargers have poor passing defense. What to do,what to do???

Well, 1st - do the Colts have a poor rushing defense? If you take the standard figure given out by most football stat sites the answer is yes (gives up 138.1 rushing yards per contest) BUT that figure is misleading because it comes from all games and is not broken down... You break their games down between road and home and you get this stat for last 2 road games since the team has gelled ( gives up 72 rushing yards per contest). That doesn't look like a poor rush defense.

2nd, Do the Chargers have a poor pass defense? again yes if you get the standard stat given out (allowing 267 yards per game through the air) BUT lets break that down to just last 3 home games and see if that stands up. (allowing 265 yards per game through air), not that far off. So what we have is the Colts have been getting better defending the run as the year has progressed, but the Chargers continue to have a poor pass defense... interesting!!!

Colts have to find a way to stop LT from rushing over 100 yds, which they might do and get Rivers to do like he did last week against Pittsburgh (2 INTs and just 159 yards passing)
Chargers just need to get to Manning and force him to throw some INTs like last years game(tossed six INTs in a loss) and hope that Addai gos back to his slump ( last week he had 153 yards rushing and 2 TDs)... MY PICK - COLTS (24 - 20)

Other Games:

MY PICKS -
DALLAS
BUFFALO
CHICAGO
BALTIMORE
DENVER
ARIZONA
SEATTLE

MONDAY NIGHT - MY PICK - NEW ORLEANS

Week 12 - 2008 Season - Thursday Night Game

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers


Cincinnati actually has played good football the last 2 games winning over Jacksonville and tying Philadelphia. Cincinnati roads games except for week 10 against Houston (lost 6 to 35) and the Jets game, have been close and against some of this years better teams. (Baltimore - lost 10-17, NY Giants - lost 23-26, Dallas -lost 22-31)

Pittsburgh at home is 3 - 2, and close games also, but losing in recent weeks to Giants and Colts. Winning over Sd, Balt, Houston. Pittsburgh earlier this year beat Cincinnati in Cincinnati 38 to 10.

But, lets talk about QBs, Ben Roethlisberger has struggled recently, but is showing steady games, despite being sacked 32 times in 10 games... in 6 of them 10 games, he has had 3 or more sacked layed on him but passed for 195 avg ypg. in the other 4 games he has been layed out less than 2 times and passed for 205 avg ypg. Also, when Big Ben sees fewer sacks, the Steelers get about 10 more pts per game.

Ryan Fitzpatrick gets sacked too, but not as much as Ben, even though Ryan is prone to hold on to the ball too long, he moves more than Ben does... Numbers on Ryan are comparable to Big Ben - 62.9% completion rate, 71.3 overall QB rating...

Weather could play a factor in this game, forecast is calling for snow, so maybe the Bengals will need more of RB Cedric Benson than Ryan Fitzpatrick. But the Steelers’ run defense is very tough and isn’t often gashed by strong, plodding runners like Benson. Also the Bengals may have rookie OT Anthony Collins making his first start on the left side, trying to keep James Harrison from laying out Friz... On the same note the Steelers, if snowy conditions exist, we could see RB Willie Parker also get plenty of work; he seems to have mastered running on the tricky Heinz Field grass slab.

So it comes down to this, Bengals have a outside chance of pulling a upset, IF they end up sacking Big Ben at least three times or more on Thursday and forcing him to throw 2 or more interceptions. Also like so many other teams and games, the Bengals must try to hold Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore to under 100 rushing yards. All of that will be hard to with 9 players being ruled out from playing. Long shot at best but doable if Bengals 'new' defense comes to play and plays rough and tumble... My Pick - Steelers

Week 11 - 2008 season - Part 2

OK, Jets won big last night in a shoot out that had both teams scoring more pts than I thought they would, (see below) but it's the final score that counts and Jets came out on top...34 -31

DENVER BRONCOS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Very well could be that Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan have a shootout with Cutler getting the edge in yards but Ryan having the edge in completion percentage. We also could see Atlanta with a big advantage in the running game with Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood because of Denver's weak defense. Don't expect Denver's running game to gain much. If the Broncos stand any chance of winning they need a huge game from Jay Cutler. Atlanta will put this one away if they put pressure on Cutler and make him throw 2 or more interceptions and keep him under 300 yards passing... My Pick - Atlanta

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
The Bucs may have Cadillac Williams back but expect to see Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn getting the carries. But both still may have a tough time against the Vikings run defense. Adrian Peterson could do much better compared to last week. If he runs for over 100 yards, Minnesota could pull off a win. Tampa Bays big edge is at QB spot with Jeff Garcia if throwing 1 or less interceptions. I'm expecting Gus Frerotte to be throwing 1+ interceptions... My Pick - Tampa Bay

TENNESSEE TITANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
For Tennessee to continue their winning streak they have to hold Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor to just under 100 yards. The 2 key points for the Jags to upset Tenn. is for David Garrard to limit his interceptions and for this years disappointing defense to try and hold Chris Johnson to under 75 rushing yards. If Jags can do just them 2 things they will walk away winners... My Pick - Jacksonville

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Passing yards is a stat that for some unknown reason seems to always tie into winning for most quarterbacks. But actually it don't, many QBs have more passing yards in losses than in wins. Drew Brees on avg. throws for over 300 yards, but yet it doesn't turn into all wins. The problem is passing yards without rushing yards. The Saints are looking for Reggie Bush to be back but he is only averaging 3.8 yards per carry. On the other hand the Chiefs are commenting about Larry Johnson rejoining the team. Look for a Chiefs win if he has over 100 yards in his return... My Pick - Kansas City
UP-DATE: Saturday 15th - Saints RB Reggie Bush will not be playing for the 3rd straight game. Bush’s knee injury will keep him out vs. the Chiefs.

CHICAGO BEARS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Looks like Kyle Orton (with a ankle boo-boo) will be playing. Packers with their great secondary probably will keep Orton to 2 or less TDs. Orton has to make sure he throws no interceptions for the Bears to have a chance. For Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers, (although with a right shoulder hurt), needs to try and bounce back from a lousy last week, needing to get his passing rating in the upper 80's. I see home slab advantage and maybe a field goal win... My Pick - Green Bay

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Should Ben Roethlisberger bow out this week and rest? While Byron Leftwich does a good job filling in for an injured Roethlisberger, as witnessed 2 weeks ago, Ben is still the guy... as long as he keeps away from throwing them darn interceptions. S.D. will be chomping at bit for him to do so and that will be their chance. However, if Ben can avoid interceptions then Steelers take one home in the win column. The Steelers defense also needs to shut down LT and try to hold him to 5 yards or less per carry. If the Steelers allow Tomlinson 70+ yards and maybe a TD or 2, then Chargers could upset the Steelers... My Pick - Pittsburgh

HOUSTON TEXANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Only thing that needs to be said about this game is Texans QB Sage Rosenfels threw four interceptions last week! My Pick - COLTS!!!!!


Sunday Night Game:
DALLAS COWBOYS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Clinton Portis is questionable and probably out. If by some great chance he plays don't look for much, maybe 70 yards or less in limited action. The Cowboys are betting to win this game on Tony Romo and Felix Jones returning healthy this week. Also helping will be Marion Barber. If Romo has problems with his thumb and the Cowboys turn the ball over 2 or more times Washington will walk away with the win... My Pick - Washington

Monday Night Game:
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Look for Brady Quinn to have another quality game with a passer rating over 80 and a completion percentage over 60, but I do believe Trent Edwards will bounce back from a rough few weeks with a somewhere with a 93 rating. If Edwards throws multiple interceptions, than the Browns could win in a squeaker. The key to Buffalo winning is having Marshawn Lynch finally break out with a good 100+ yard rushing game... My Pick - Cleveland

Week 11 - 2008 season

OK, boys and girls, week 10 is over and I did some last minute changes to my picks to see if my charts were worthy or not. Ended up with 10 out 14, if I would have stuck with charts I would have gone 12/14...

So week 11 is here, we have a full board of 16 games again and some tough ones at that...

Will be back later to do some analysing and picking..........

Thursday night game this week is Jets vs Patriots, Patriots beat the Jets earlier this season (9/14) on Jets home slab - 19/10. Both teams were pretty evenly match,the only 2 stand-out items were 1 interception thrown by Mr. Favre, that ended up with N.Eng. scoring a TD off of it and Jets had 50 more penalties yards than N.Eng.

N.Eng. had 4 field goals and 1 TD which tells me that Jets defense is strong. Jets would have had more points but penalties and that interception cause their downfall...

This time around, IMO things will be different - comparing the Jets and N.Eng. home/road and last 3 game stats, Jets come out on top 21.77 to 20.12

Prediction: Jets 23 - N.Eng. 19

NFL Hall of Shame

Coming here shortly a article about the NFL professional Hall of Fame and why it has not included any info, reference or displays pertaining to Women's pro football... Not right in my book..........stay tune...

WEEK 10 - 2008 season

OK lets get this ball rolling this year!

8 weeks of football are done, which means...

The official Knobby Kabushka 8' x 10' Charts are up on the walls, the stats are written, I'm signed up for Football Outsiders Loser League
and we're heading all of this to Tampa Bay on Feb. 1st,2009...

So far I have these games judged:

Cleveland wins @ home by 4+ - - - this could very well change by Thursday with Quinn being put in as QB. Quinn hasn't played since 01/03/2007 and that was his last college game, so talk about being rusty and battle unproven... Broncos on the other hand are injury riddled, but have signed linebacker Mario Haggan and defensive back Roderick Rogers to their active roster on Tuesday and also promoted running back P.J. Pope from their practice squad. They waived tight end Chad Mustard and signed running back Cory Boyd and linebacker Tyson Smith to their practice squad. So alot of fresh meat out on the green slab....

11/05/2008 UPDATE: I'm sticking to my original pick Browns by 4+, based on defenses of both teams. Since both offenses are totally screwy the only option is to base the game on their defenses,which I have done... In road games, Denver's defense has allowed opps to score a avg of 29.3 pts and 25.7 pts on grass fields...In home games, Cleveland's defense has allowed opps to score a avg. of 22.2 pts and 21.1 pts on grass fields...

Atlanta wins @ home by 10 or less,

Tenn. wins away by 6 or less,

Houston wins @ home by 5 or less,

Miami wins @ home by 6 or more,

NYG wins away by 4 or less...

and for my Pick the Pros friends and their Sunday nite tie-breaker, I have NYG 24 - Phil. 20

2 games I'm still working on is Jacksonville/Detroit and the one between my beloved COLTS and them hot pressed and rolled cold Steelers, that's going to be a rough one to pick. Oh! I can still see that January 14, 1996 game when #4 QB Jim Harbaugh threw a hail mary at the final gun and the ball rolling off the stomach of WR-Aaron Bailey in the Pittsburgh end zone...AAGGHH!!! the agony of defeat....

Well, early look see at my charts says Pittsburgh by 6 or less, we'll see...

11/05/2008 Jacksonville/Detroit Update: If Detroit plays Culpepper they stand a better chance of maybe a win. Even though he's rusty, they say he threw sharp and handed off solid today.
The defense for Detroit sucks, that where the If comes in, If Jacksonville is on game they'll go right though Detroit. Culpepper, if he plays is going to have to put some big numbers up to compensate for what their defense allows... Jason Hanson is a damn good field goal kicker and Cul will make offense SLIGHTLY better. It's the Det. defense that will probably make him wish he stayed home... Some stats - Jacksonville has scored a total of 76 pts in 4 road games and their defense has allowed a total of 76 pts... In home games, Detroit has scored 49 pts and their defense has allowed 107 pts...

Even though Culpepper MIGHT improve Detroit's Off. I don't see a win happening this week... Jacksonville wins away by 8 or less...

11/06/2008 Colts/Steelers Update: All the numbers indicate that the Steelers SHOULD win this game hands down. The pts the Steelers defense has allowed is down right LOWWWWWWWW...( Home - 19.3 avg, Grass - 15.1avg, Last 3 games - 12.1 avg) while at the same time the pts Colts defense has allowed has been HIGHHHH( Road - 26.7avg, Grass - 30.7avg, Last 3 games - 26.7avg). Since moving to Heinz Field the Steelers are 41-14-1. Offensively, Steelers come out on top also, (Home - 25pts avg, Grass - 20pts avg, Last 3 - 25 pts avg), the Colts are close offensively (Road 21pts avg, Grass - 22pts avg, last 3 - 17.7pts avg)

The IF in this game is Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger, If Leftwich has to start against the Colts, it would prove to be the better of the two for the Colts. Leftwich is 2-3 as a starter against the Colts from his AFC South days. Roethlisberger has a 45-18 record as a starter, and also a playoff victory at Indy in the 2005 AFC Divisional playoffs. Something else for the records is the Colts have won only once in 10 trips to Pittsburgh, that came in 1968. So whats the verdict? Since it's week 10 in the season and the numbers are there and as much as I hate to go against the COLTS... Pittsburgh wins @home by 8 or less...

Subject to flip-flop before 4pm Sunday, LOL

At the last minute I changed my pick from Pittsburgh to the COLTS, I just couldn't pick against them and they did me proud...