Week 13 - Sunday Games - 2008

Carolina @ Green Bay

Carolina stats for last 3 road games and all grass played games combined are: pts. for 39.6 / pts. against 41.

Green Bay stats for last 3 home games and all grass played games combined are: pts. for 56.5 / pts. against 34.1.

Carolina has a avg. turnover rate of 2.0 with penalty avg. of 7 - 40yds for road games.

Green Bay has a avg. turnover rate of 0.6 with a penalty avg. of 9 - 82yds for home games.

Green Bays defense against the run is like 'Hello are we here', but can Carolina take advantage of that fact? They are going to have to considering Panthers QB Jake Delhomme has been bringing a water pistol to a cannon fight the last 3 weeks.

Carolina's run defense is better than GB but still lacking with DE Julius Peppers shining bright.

Watch for Green Bays RB Ryan Grant to possibly make another good showing. Also they have to limit sacks on Rodgers and hold down the penalties. Carolina's RB team of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart will be hard to control but doable... MY PICK - GREEN BAY

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay

New Orleans stats for last 3 road games and all grass games combined are: pts. for 45 / pts against 57.

New Orleans has a turnover rate avg. of 1.7 and a penalty avg. of 4 - 41yds for road games.

Tampa Bay stats for last 3 home games and all grass games combined are: pts. for 45.7 / pts. against 24.

Tampa Bay has a turnover rate avg. of 1.2 and a penalty avg. of 7 - 65yds for home games.

Watching Drew Brees pass is like watching 4th of July fireworks, lots of them, and since their first meeting earlier this year, the Bucs' pass defense has been like clouds and rain on 4th of July, covering everything and putting a damper on QBs. Will Reggie Bush return, looks like it, but I don't expect miracles from him... but Saints can use him to take some pressure off Brees, even if as a decoy...

Tampa's offense is not good (don't be fooled by last weeks 38 pts) but, QB Jeff Garcia although not the caliber of Brees should be able to move around and find holes in Saints secondary defense. RBs Warrick Dunn and Cadillac Williams will have to have good numbers...MY PICK - NEW ORLEANS

Atlanta @ San Diego

Atlanta stats for last 3 road games and all grass games combined are: pts. for 38.2 / pts. against 36.8

Atlanta has a turnover rate avg. of 1.4 and a penalty avg. of 5 - 42yds for road games

San Diego stats for last 3 home games and all grass games combined are: pts. for 49.3 / pts. against 40.2

San Diego has a turnover rate avg. of 1.2 and a penalty avg. of 4 - 29yds for home games

The fine oiled train, with just a slip or two of a gear now and then, engineered by rookie QB Matt Ryan rides out west to take advantage of San Diego's tumbled old train station. Riding along with him will be WR Roddy White and RB Michael Turner. But will they have a derail when they meet up with SD's NT Jamal Williams.

Sitting at the SD train station waiting will be league leading QB in TD passes (23) and passer rating (103.3) Philip Rivers. Kicked back enjoying the view with him will be WR Vincent Jackson, and TE Antonio Gates, not to mention RB LaDainian Tomlinson. Of course they'll all have to get pass the Atl. caboose called DE John Abraham who rides to town tied for second in the NFL with 12 sacks...MY PICK - SAN DIEGO

Chicago @ Minnesota - Sunday Nite Game

Chicago stats for last 3 road games and all dome games combined are: pts.for38.8 / pts. against 39.4

Chicago has a turnover rate avg. of 1.8 and a penalty avg. of 6-56yds for road games

Minnesota stats for last 3 home games and all dome games combined are: pts. for 50.1 / pts. against 30.5

Minnesota has a turnover avg. of 1.2 and a penalty avg. of 7-54yds for home games.

I don't think this game will be a hell - raiser like the first meeting this year, but points could be scored, but how? Will the Bears concentrate on stopping Vikings RB Adrian Peterson? [423 rushing yards, seven TDs in three career games vs. the Bears] Or will Minnesota defense harass Orton into making a couple of Int? [185 passes without an interception] Or will Chicago's DE Adewale Ogunleye and DT Tommie Harris get pass Minnesota's O-line and drive QB Gus Frerotte into retirement? One of them will walk away in 1st place, UNLESS they TIE!!!!!!!!! now that would be a shame on the NFL overtime rules again................MY PICK - MINNESOTA

Score tab: Minnesota 27 - Chicago 22

Kansas City @ Oakland

Fumbles / Int. and penalties will kill Oakland....MY PICK - KANSAS CITY

Just to see and for fun I'll predict the score to be KC - 16 / OAK - 14

more games to come, stay tune.....

Week 13 - Turkey Day Games

WELL, WELL, WELL what a week 12 was. I went out on a limb on several games and came up somewhat empty, but overall I pulled in 9 out of 16...So on to week 13 and this weeks Thursday games

Tennessee @ Detroit

Tenn. is goin' be hopping after losing to the Jets, and Det. does not have any type of arsenal to stop them. Det. starts out lately like gang busters and then fades away just like Rods job is...

Does anyone think Det. will actually win this week, I mean last week they had a chance, 17 to 0 earlier in game but for some reason, their defense can not hold a lead. Could it be that Marinelli's decision to hire his daughter's husband (Joe Berry) as his defensive coordinator so far looks like a mistake, and it's a mistake that Marinelli would never admit for family reasons....MY PICK - TENNESSEE

Seattle @ Dallas

Ok, Hasselbeck is back and did pretty good last week @ home against Washington, but they travel to the Big D this week which will put a crimp in more practice time for Hassel and crew. Romo look good coming back from his injury, so I'm throwing all my chips in...MY PICK -DALLAS

Arizona @ Philadelphia

Donovan McNabb is again the QB, after being told to go sit in the corner by Coach Reid last week, after McNabb has had some terrible outings these last few weeks. But, besides that the Eagles defense is still strong, giving up a avg. of 16.4 pts @ in home games and 19.4 pts when playing on grass slabs. Arizona on the other hand gives up a 25.5 pt avg. in road games and a 28.0 pt avg when playing on the green tundra...

McNabb needs to get his act together, Westbrook has to come out of his coma (injuries play heck on a body) and the offense needs to quit giving up the ball so much which might be hard to do, with the Arizona creating them making them tied for second in the NFL with 22, including 12 forced fumbles.

Kurt Warner and crew ( WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin) just needs to play tight football and watch the penalties. Their run game has gone to la-la land and won't be helping much.

Look for maybe a kick return to go all the way for the Eagles at some point...MY PICK - PHILADELPHIA

Week 12 - 2008 Season - Sunday Games

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ DETROIT LIONS

OK, I know, I know why bother? and I'm even putting this game on top here. Well I feel crazy this week and 2 other reasons - turnovers, penalties. Actually you could say 4 reasons - the previous 3 and add Jason Hanson. Long history between these 2 and as bad as Det. has been AALLLL these years and as goooood as TB has been
AALLL these years, the records still show Det. leading the series 14 - 9... So call me crazy, say I've spent too much time @ the puter, or I must have got hold of some bad Strohs, BUT...MY PICK - LIONS

HOUSTON TEXANS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Look for more of a running game than passing, especially with news that Quinn has a broken finger. (Quinn broke his right index finger in the first half of Monday night's win over Buffalo)

Houstons RB Slaton can run and can put up yardage if allowed to (156 yds in week 11). Browns RB Lewis could also see more work against Houstons weak defense... just a little side note - The Browns could be big winners if they also give the ball more to RB Jerome Harrison, he has ran for 158 total yards with only 10 hand offs the past 2 weeks. (15.8 ypc)

As for the QBs - Rosenfels seems to have a tendency towards still throwing interceptions and I see in this game, him doing the same, expect at least 2. Quinn in his 3rd start (if he plays) will hold steady again, although maybe doing more hand offs...

Turnovers and weather will play a big part in this game, Houston has more of a chance to give the ball away than Cleveland does, so look for Cleveland to try to shake Sage... As for weather if the game is played in rainy, cold settings the Browns stand a much better chance of winning compared to Houstons where their passing game is better suited for fair/sunny weather...

Bottom line is if Browns can make Sage throw interceptions (2+) and Lewis can rush for a 100 yds, they can come away with a 1 or 2 pt. victory... Less then 2 interceptions and fair weather, could be the Texans walking down the aisle... Check the weather conditions before placing your bets boys & girls... MY PICK - BROWNS

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Will this be a repeat of this years earlier game or will Atl put the metal to the pedal and run over Carolina this week? Lets look, 1st Atl has a sight advantage in pts scored at home compared to Carolinas road scoring ( Panthers- 14.0/19.2 - - Falcons- 29.6/19.8). QBs, Delhomme and Ryan both are good, except that Delhomme has not had a good last 2 weeks completing just 17-of-46 passes. Ryan has had a few bad games, but is steady in all...

Panthers RBs Williams and Stewart seems to be hitting their stride together (31 att/ 134yds avg all games) but they seem to lose something when playing road games ( 24 att/ 98 yds avg road games). Falcons RBs Turner and Norwood seem to average better numbers at home( 36att/161yds avg. home games)

So what does all this mean? It means defense, sacks and interceptions, special teams. Carolina has to stop Turner from getting 100 yds, and they have to get at Ryan and they can boogie the night away. Atlanta just has to stop Williams & Stewart & get some good action from their special teams and Atl will dance the dance of stars... MY PICK - ATLANTA

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Adrian Peterson! He is the Vikings this year, NFL's leading rusher and they run him & run him.
Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor will run for Jacksonville. Jacksonville linebackers might stop Mr. P @ less than 100 yds, but only because their fast not big... Minnesota has to make sure they grap all the way around when they go tackling Mr. J-D or he'll bust them...

Minnesotas passing is lacking to say the least, but maybe it can take advantage this week of Jacksonvilles mistake riddled deep coverage. Jacksonville QB Garrard receivers are not helping him and there is no going deep with good success. Did someone mention Field Goal?

Peterson gets 100+ yds and Vikings take the ball deep, look for a Ryan Longwell kick to win it, Peterson get -100 yds and Jags hold on to the ball, we could see the Jaguars showing their spots... MY PICK - MINNESOTA

NEW YORK JETS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Will this be the week Tenn. gos down? Jacksonville flopped on me in the 2nd half last week. The numbers point towards another Titan victory, BUT the Jets are on their game now more than ever this year - The offense has come together under Favre and RB Thomas Jones and with their excellent kick return yardage. (look for about 26 - 29 carries with 115 - 118 yds from Jets RBs) But the Titans just don't seem to be easy push over this year, teams have stacked the wall against them to block the run ( look for about 28 - 30 carries with 117 - 120 yds from Titans RBs) and they just turn to passing and succeed that way. Which is what the Jets are poor at, short pass coverage to the TE, and their linebackers seem to blitz alot. So can the Jets turn around their defense mode on a dime this week? If they can make the defense adjustment, if Jones gets good rushing yardage and with maybe a little help from Leon Washington on special teams, they stand a good chance of upsetting the Titans...MY PICK - TENNESSEE

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

This game will not even be close to the one played in week 3, both teams need to win this week, but which one will walk away with the playoff chance? Don't look for Matt Cassel to do what he did against the Jets last week ( 400 yards and 3 touchdowns ), instead look for him to run for his life - Miami's blitz machine will be working just fine this game, so don't look for him to throw many deep ones to Randy Moss trying to take advantage of a somewhat weak Dolphins secondary. Which will leave Patroits RBs Sammy Morris, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Kevin Faulk needing to run inside alot but might not get many yds. ( look for 90 - 105 combined yards )

The Dolphins have different possibilities to use, RBs Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown will be hard to defend ( look for combined yardage of about 115 - 130 ) and WRs Greg Camarillo and Ted Ginn Jr. might have a very good day if Patroits secondary has a lackluster play attitude...

Dolphins one downfall might be their very weak kick return coverage... MY PICK - MIAMI


Sunday Night Game:
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

2 teams this year that have opposite problems, so we're told, Colts have poor rushing defense, Chargers have poor passing defense. What to do,what to do???

Well, 1st - do the Colts have a poor rushing defense? If you take the standard figure given out by most football stat sites the answer is yes (gives up 138.1 rushing yards per contest) BUT that figure is misleading because it comes from all games and is not broken down... You break their games down between road and home and you get this stat for last 2 road games since the team has gelled ( gives up 72 rushing yards per contest). That doesn't look like a poor rush defense.

2nd, Do the Chargers have a poor pass defense? again yes if you get the standard stat given out (allowing 267 yards per game through the air) BUT lets break that down to just last 3 home games and see if that stands up. (allowing 265 yards per game through air), not that far off. So what we have is the Colts have been getting better defending the run as the year has progressed, but the Chargers continue to have a poor pass defense... interesting!!!

Colts have to find a way to stop LT from rushing over 100 yds, which they might do and get Rivers to do like he did last week against Pittsburgh (2 INTs and just 159 yards passing)
Chargers just need to get to Manning and force him to throw some INTs like last years game(tossed six INTs in a loss) and hope that Addai gos back to his slump ( last week he had 153 yards rushing and 2 TDs)... MY PICK - COLTS (24 - 20)

Other Games:

MY PICKS -
DALLAS
BUFFALO
CHICAGO
BALTIMORE
DENVER
ARIZONA
SEATTLE

MONDAY NIGHT - MY PICK - NEW ORLEANS

Week 12 - 2008 Season - Thursday Night Game

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers


Cincinnati actually has played good football the last 2 games winning over Jacksonville and tying Philadelphia. Cincinnati roads games except for week 10 against Houston (lost 6 to 35) and the Jets game, have been close and against some of this years better teams. (Baltimore - lost 10-17, NY Giants - lost 23-26, Dallas -lost 22-31)

Pittsburgh at home is 3 - 2, and close games also, but losing in recent weeks to Giants and Colts. Winning over Sd, Balt, Houston. Pittsburgh earlier this year beat Cincinnati in Cincinnati 38 to 10.

But, lets talk about QBs, Ben Roethlisberger has struggled recently, but is showing steady games, despite being sacked 32 times in 10 games... in 6 of them 10 games, he has had 3 or more sacked layed on him but passed for 195 avg ypg. in the other 4 games he has been layed out less than 2 times and passed for 205 avg ypg. Also, when Big Ben sees fewer sacks, the Steelers get about 10 more pts per game.

Ryan Fitzpatrick gets sacked too, but not as much as Ben, even though Ryan is prone to hold on to the ball too long, he moves more than Ben does... Numbers on Ryan are comparable to Big Ben - 62.9% completion rate, 71.3 overall QB rating...

Weather could play a factor in this game, forecast is calling for snow, so maybe the Bengals will need more of RB Cedric Benson than Ryan Fitzpatrick. But the Steelers’ run defense is very tough and isn’t often gashed by strong, plodding runners like Benson. Also the Bengals may have rookie OT Anthony Collins making his first start on the left side, trying to keep James Harrison from laying out Friz... On the same note the Steelers, if snowy conditions exist, we could see RB Willie Parker also get plenty of work; he seems to have mastered running on the tricky Heinz Field grass slab.

So it comes down to this, Bengals have a outside chance of pulling a upset, IF they end up sacking Big Ben at least three times or more on Thursday and forcing him to throw 2 or more interceptions. Also like so many other teams and games, the Bengals must try to hold Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore to under 100 rushing yards. All of that will be hard to with 9 players being ruled out from playing. Long shot at best but doable if Bengals 'new' defense comes to play and plays rough and tumble... My Pick - Steelers

Week 11 - 2008 season - Part 2

OK, Jets won big last night in a shoot out that had both teams scoring more pts than I thought they would, (see below) but it's the final score that counts and Jets came out on top...34 -31

DENVER BRONCOS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Very well could be that Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan have a shootout with Cutler getting the edge in yards but Ryan having the edge in completion percentage. We also could see Atlanta with a big advantage in the running game with Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood because of Denver's weak defense. Don't expect Denver's running game to gain much. If the Broncos stand any chance of winning they need a huge game from Jay Cutler. Atlanta will put this one away if they put pressure on Cutler and make him throw 2 or more interceptions and keep him under 300 yards passing... My Pick - Atlanta

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
The Bucs may have Cadillac Williams back but expect to see Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn getting the carries. But both still may have a tough time against the Vikings run defense. Adrian Peterson could do much better compared to last week. If he runs for over 100 yards, Minnesota could pull off a win. Tampa Bays big edge is at QB spot with Jeff Garcia if throwing 1 or less interceptions. I'm expecting Gus Frerotte to be throwing 1+ interceptions... My Pick - Tampa Bay

TENNESSEE TITANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
For Tennessee to continue their winning streak they have to hold Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor to just under 100 yards. The 2 key points for the Jags to upset Tenn. is for David Garrard to limit his interceptions and for this years disappointing defense to try and hold Chris Johnson to under 75 rushing yards. If Jags can do just them 2 things they will walk away winners... My Pick - Jacksonville

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Passing yards is a stat that for some unknown reason seems to always tie into winning for most quarterbacks. But actually it don't, many QBs have more passing yards in losses than in wins. Drew Brees on avg. throws for over 300 yards, but yet it doesn't turn into all wins. The problem is passing yards without rushing yards. The Saints are looking for Reggie Bush to be back but he is only averaging 3.8 yards per carry. On the other hand the Chiefs are commenting about Larry Johnson rejoining the team. Look for a Chiefs win if he has over 100 yards in his return... My Pick - Kansas City
UP-DATE: Saturday 15th - Saints RB Reggie Bush will not be playing for the 3rd straight game. Bush’s knee injury will keep him out vs. the Chiefs.

CHICAGO BEARS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Looks like Kyle Orton (with a ankle boo-boo) will be playing. Packers with their great secondary probably will keep Orton to 2 or less TDs. Orton has to make sure he throws no interceptions for the Bears to have a chance. For Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers, (although with a right shoulder hurt), needs to try and bounce back from a lousy last week, needing to get his passing rating in the upper 80's. I see home slab advantage and maybe a field goal win... My Pick - Green Bay

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Should Ben Roethlisberger bow out this week and rest? While Byron Leftwich does a good job filling in for an injured Roethlisberger, as witnessed 2 weeks ago, Ben is still the guy... as long as he keeps away from throwing them darn interceptions. S.D. will be chomping at bit for him to do so and that will be their chance. However, if Ben can avoid interceptions then Steelers take one home in the win column. The Steelers defense also needs to shut down LT and try to hold him to 5 yards or less per carry. If the Steelers allow Tomlinson 70+ yards and maybe a TD or 2, then Chargers could upset the Steelers... My Pick - Pittsburgh

HOUSTON TEXANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Only thing that needs to be said about this game is Texans QB Sage Rosenfels threw four interceptions last week! My Pick - COLTS!!!!!


Sunday Night Game:
DALLAS COWBOYS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Clinton Portis is questionable and probably out. If by some great chance he plays don't look for much, maybe 70 yards or less in limited action. The Cowboys are betting to win this game on Tony Romo and Felix Jones returning healthy this week. Also helping will be Marion Barber. If Romo has problems with his thumb and the Cowboys turn the ball over 2 or more times Washington will walk away with the win... My Pick - Washington

Monday Night Game:
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Look for Brady Quinn to have another quality game with a passer rating over 80 and a completion percentage over 60, but I do believe Trent Edwards will bounce back from a rough few weeks with a somewhere with a 93 rating. If Edwards throws multiple interceptions, than the Browns could win in a squeaker. The key to Buffalo winning is having Marshawn Lynch finally break out with a good 100+ yard rushing game... My Pick - Cleveland

Week 11 - 2008 season

OK, boys and girls, week 10 is over and I did some last minute changes to my picks to see if my charts were worthy or not. Ended up with 10 out 14, if I would have stuck with charts I would have gone 12/14...

So week 11 is here, we have a full board of 16 games again and some tough ones at that...

Will be back later to do some analysing and picking..........

Thursday night game this week is Jets vs Patriots, Patriots beat the Jets earlier this season (9/14) on Jets home slab - 19/10. Both teams were pretty evenly match,the only 2 stand-out items were 1 interception thrown by Mr. Favre, that ended up with N.Eng. scoring a TD off of it and Jets had 50 more penalties yards than N.Eng.

N.Eng. had 4 field goals and 1 TD which tells me that Jets defense is strong. Jets would have had more points but penalties and that interception cause their downfall...

This time around, IMO things will be different - comparing the Jets and N.Eng. home/road and last 3 game stats, Jets come out on top 21.77 to 20.12

Prediction: Jets 23 - N.Eng. 19

NFL Hall of Shame

Coming here shortly a article about the NFL professional Hall of Fame and why it has not included any info, reference or displays pertaining to Women's pro football... Not right in my book..........stay tune...

WEEK 10 - 2008 season

OK lets get this ball rolling this year!

8 weeks of football are done, which means...

The official Knobby Kabushka 8' x 10' Charts are up on the walls, the stats are written, I'm signed up for Football Outsiders Loser League
and we're heading all of this to Tampa Bay on Feb. 1st,2009...

So far I have these games judged:

Cleveland wins @ home by 4+ - - - this could very well change by Thursday with Quinn being put in as QB. Quinn hasn't played since 01/03/2007 and that was his last college game, so talk about being rusty and battle unproven... Broncos on the other hand are injury riddled, but have signed linebacker Mario Haggan and defensive back Roderick Rogers to their active roster on Tuesday and also promoted running back P.J. Pope from their practice squad. They waived tight end Chad Mustard and signed running back Cory Boyd and linebacker Tyson Smith to their practice squad. So alot of fresh meat out on the green slab....

11/05/2008 UPDATE: I'm sticking to my original pick Browns by 4+, based on defenses of both teams. Since both offenses are totally screwy the only option is to base the game on their defenses,which I have done... In road games, Denver's defense has allowed opps to score a avg of 29.3 pts and 25.7 pts on grass fields...In home games, Cleveland's defense has allowed opps to score a avg. of 22.2 pts and 21.1 pts on grass fields...

Atlanta wins @ home by 10 or less,

Tenn. wins away by 6 or less,

Houston wins @ home by 5 or less,

Miami wins @ home by 6 or more,

NYG wins away by 4 or less...

and for my Pick the Pros friends and their Sunday nite tie-breaker, I have NYG 24 - Phil. 20

2 games I'm still working on is Jacksonville/Detroit and the one between my beloved COLTS and them hot pressed and rolled cold Steelers, that's going to be a rough one to pick. Oh! I can still see that January 14, 1996 game when #4 QB Jim Harbaugh threw a hail mary at the final gun and the ball rolling off the stomach of WR-Aaron Bailey in the Pittsburgh end zone...AAGGHH!!! the agony of defeat....

Well, early look see at my charts says Pittsburgh by 6 or less, we'll see...

11/05/2008 Jacksonville/Detroit Update: If Detroit plays Culpepper they stand a better chance of maybe a win. Even though he's rusty, they say he threw sharp and handed off solid today.
The defense for Detroit sucks, that where the If comes in, If Jacksonville is on game they'll go right though Detroit. Culpepper, if he plays is going to have to put some big numbers up to compensate for what their defense allows... Jason Hanson is a damn good field goal kicker and Cul will make offense SLIGHTLY better. It's the Det. defense that will probably make him wish he stayed home... Some stats - Jacksonville has scored a total of 76 pts in 4 road games and their defense has allowed a total of 76 pts... In home games, Detroit has scored 49 pts and their defense has allowed 107 pts...

Even though Culpepper MIGHT improve Detroit's Off. I don't see a win happening this week... Jacksonville wins away by 8 or less...

11/06/2008 Colts/Steelers Update: All the numbers indicate that the Steelers SHOULD win this game hands down. The pts the Steelers defense has allowed is down right LOWWWWWWWW...( Home - 19.3 avg, Grass - 15.1avg, Last 3 games - 12.1 avg) while at the same time the pts Colts defense has allowed has been HIGHHHH( Road - 26.7avg, Grass - 30.7avg, Last 3 games - 26.7avg). Since moving to Heinz Field the Steelers are 41-14-1. Offensively, Steelers come out on top also, (Home - 25pts avg, Grass - 20pts avg, Last 3 - 25 pts avg), the Colts are close offensively (Road 21pts avg, Grass - 22pts avg, last 3 - 17.7pts avg)

The IF in this game is Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger, If Leftwich has to start against the Colts, it would prove to be the better of the two for the Colts. Leftwich is 2-3 as a starter against the Colts from his AFC South days. Roethlisberger has a 45-18 record as a starter, and also a playoff victory at Indy in the 2005 AFC Divisional playoffs. Something else for the records is the Colts have won only once in 10 trips to Pittsburgh, that came in 1968. So whats the verdict? Since it's week 10 in the season and the numbers are there and as much as I hate to go against the COLTS... Pittsburgh wins @home by 8 or less...

Subject to flip-flop before 4pm Sunday, LOL

At the last minute I changed my pick from Pittsburgh to the COLTS, I just couldn't pick against them and they did me proud...