2008 SUPERBOWL

Well I know I have been lacking in my analysis here recently, and I'm sorry for that - but I have one follower who e-mails me and get me back on my toes....don't you Karin????

Anyways - on to to the game of the year - rough and tumble Pittsburgh Steelers vs pass happy Arizona Cardinals???? who da thunk it back in September....

First, let me say that I consider this game a road game for both teams, but I'm sure the Steelers will have more fans there than Arizona will.

Road Records: Pittsburgh 6-2 on road - Arizona 4-5 on road. Record on Grass: Pittsburgh 11-4 Arizona 10-5

Last meeting: Sept. 30, 2007, at Arizona. Arizona (+6) won 21-14.

Total Stats for the season;

PITTSBURGH: OFFENSE
290 1st downs, 93 by rushing & 179 by passing & 18 by penalties.

105 avg rushing yds. per game.

206 avg. passing yds. per game.

Big Ben had a 59.9 % completion rating, was sacked 49 times and lost 306 yds & was intercepted 15 times.

Punted 78 times & 41 were returned with a avg. return of 6 yds. & no TDs

DEFENSE,

Allowed 240 1st downs, 73 by rushing & 149 by passing & 18 by penalty

Gave up a avg. of 237 yds. per game - 80 by rushing & 157 passing

Had 51 sacks that totaled 350 lost yds. had 20 interceptions - 2 were returned for TDs


ARIZONA: OFFENSE
328 1st downs, 72 by rushing & 231 by passing & 25 by penalties

74 avg. rushing yds. per game.

292 avg. passing yds. per game.

Mr. Warner had a 66.3 % completion rating, was sacked 28 times and lost 201 yds. & was intercepted 15 times.

Punted 60 times & 33 were returned with a avg. return of 7.2 yds. & no TDs.

DEFENSE,

Allowed 312 1st downs, 117 by rushing & 172 by passing & 23 by penalty

Gave up a avg. of 331 yds. per game - 110 by rushing & 221 by passing

Had 31 sacks that totaled 191 lost yds. had 13 interceptions - 2 were returned for TDs


RANKINGS:

Pittsburgh

total yds/game 22
rushing yds/game 23
passing yds/game 17

opp. yards/game 1
opp. rushing yds/game 2
opp. passing yds/game 1

Arizona

total yds/game 4
rushing yds/game 32
passing yds/game 2

opp. yards/game 19
opp.rushing yds/game 16
opp. passing yds/game 22

Arizona has stepped up and played damn good football during these play-offs, much better then the regular season - could they actually be better than their regular season stats show????

The Steelers are favored for good reason; they are the better team, at least stats show defensively. The Cardinals can score quickly and the Steelers are not a good come from behind team. Question is can this 2008 play-off Cardinal team get into the Steelers Defense? Can Steelers actually get to and cover Fitzgerald?

Warner if given time can throw balls through hula-hoops at 80 yds. Under pressure and out of pocket and he has trouble hitting the side of a barn. Big Ben just stands there and takes it, good or bad results.

Fitzgerald should be the number one guy for Warner, but don't be surprise if the Cardinals change go to guys to shake up Steelers defense.

Ward is playable but seems to be doubtful at the same time. If Pittsburgh can dictate the tempo of the game, they should win easily. On the other hand if the Cardinals can strike early they will not be in forced passing situations and can take some of the pressure off of the quarterback.

This game has a lot of IFs & ANDs to it - a great defense -vs- a explosive offense - a tried & true superbowl team -vs- a never even been there team...

MY PICK - ARIZONA 26 - Pittsburgh 24

2008 - Week 19 - Divisional Championships

Did you know that there are stats out there if one were to look hard enough that tells you what shoes each player wears during what games and where? Amazing how big and involved this game of football has become in our country....

Well, anyways after last weeks total pick melt-down for me, I'm back, but this week I'm going simple, sometimes you look at enough stats and you lose sense of what your objective is -which for me is to have a little fun and hopefully pass along some useful information to others..
So let's begin;

Baltimore @ Tennessee

On road games the Ravens get a avg. of 188 passing yds. & 148 rushing yds. They allow on avg. their opponents to pass for 200 yds. & rush for 111 yds. Oh, that's good defense there...

Tennessee in home games avg. 190 passing yds. & rushing for a avg. of 129 yds. They allow on avg. their opponents to avg. 209 passing yds. & 109 rushing. Wee doggies, that's better than them Ravens ...

So what we have here, is a failure to communicate... No, wait that's from Cool Hand Luke movie. What we do have here though, is 2 tight rushing defenses combined with medium offences...

Ravens are more of a big play defense who can generate turnovers. This is a game likely to be decided by turnovers and Baltimore is somewhat more likely to generate some. Each team is going to have to force the other team into doing something they don't want to do...

Expect to see Baltimore get around 195 to 200 passing yds combined with 127 to 133 rushing. Tennessee should come in a little under that with 193 to 198 passing yds. and 118 to 122 rushing yds.

BAL 18th OFF; TEN 7th DEF
BAL 4th RUN; TEN 6th VS. RUN
BAL 28th PASS; TEN 9th VS. PASS
BAL 11th PTS; TEN 2nd PTS ALLOWED

TEN 21st OFF; BAL 2nd DEF
TEN 7th RUN; BAL 3rd VS. RUN
TEN 27th PASS; BAL 2nd VS. PASS
TEN 14th PTS; BAL 3rd PTS ALLOWED

Expect another close one...MY PICK - BALTIMORE 17 - 16 Tennessee

Arizona @ Carolina

Road games for Warner and crew seem to lack something compare to their home games. On avg. for road games Arizona gets 283 passing yds. & 80 rushing yds - that's like sitting on the bench and watching the parade. They allow the opponents 201 avg. passing yds & 122 avg. rushing yds.
Car-o-lina at home gets on avg. 197 passing yds. and 174 avg. rushing yds. - somebody please, take the battery out of their backs... With all that running about, their opponents gather 227 avg. passing yds. & 117 avg. rushing yds. - not to far from Baltimore defensive stat.

Mr Kurt will be carrying the team as I see Arizona rushing not getting alot. Cardinal defense played well in shutting down the run last week, they will not have as easy a job trying to keep Williams and Stewart contained.

Expect to see Arizona get 252 to 258 passing yds. & 95 to 100 rushing yds. Carolina should be getting about 197 to 203 passing yds. & 147 to 153 rushing yds.

AZ 4th OFF; CAR 18th DEF
AZ 32nd RUN; CAR 20th VS. RUN
AZ 2nd PASS; CAR 16th VS. PASS
AZ 3rd PTS; CAR 12th PTS ALLOWED

CAR 10th OFF; AZ 19th DEF
CAR 3rd RUN; AZ 16th VS. RUN
CAR 19th PASS; AZ 22nd VS. PASS
CAR 7th PTS; AZ 28th PTS ALLOWED

Carolina @ home has played damn good football compared to their road games. They'll be telling Kurt and crew - (in my best Clint Eastwood voice) Get off MY LAWN!... MY PICK - CAROLINA 34 - 22 Arizona

Philadelphia @ New York Giants

The Philadelphia McNabbs for road games seems to have sprung alive here since Mr. Mood was sent to the corner during the Baltimore game earlier.

With road games Philadelphia gets an avg. of 250 passing yds. & 87 rushing yds. They must be learning knitting at the same time they're running... They allow opponents to pass for an avg. of 198 yds & rush for 119 yds.

Giants at home earn 183 avg. passing yds. & 179 avg. rushing yds. I bet ya' they smell donuts in the clubhouse to run that much... Their worthy opponents this year have been allowed to pass for a avg. of 203 yds. & 114 avg. rushing yds. Always losing out on the donuts.......

Expect to see Philadelphia get in the range of 223 to 229 passing yds. & 97 to 103 rushing yds. N.Y.Giants should get about 187 to 193 passing yds. & 146 to 152 rushing yds.


PHI 9TH OFF; NYG 5th DEF
PHI 22ND RUN; NYG 9th VS. RUN
PHI 6TH PASS; NYG 8th VS. PASS
PHI 6TH PTS; NYG 5th PTS ALLOWED

NYG 7th OFF; PHI 3RD DEF;
NYG 1st RUN; PHI 4TH VS. RUN
NYG 18th PASS; PHI 3RD VS. PASS
NYG t-3rd PTS; PHI 4TH PTS ALLOWED

I'm seeing 3 of them, Mick - than hit the middle one, Rock. Which is what one of these teams have to do if they want to hear the final bell. The Eagle team that will show up this week, can beat just about anyone as long as they are consistent. The Giants, hope they haven't lost any momentum, they are all healthy and Jacobs I hear is biting at the bit to get going...MY PICK - NYG 24 - 21 Philadelphia

San Diego @ Pittsburgh

To be or not to be, that is the question. Whether it is nobler in the minds of men to throw the football or stand and get hit like a punching bag. Which, Roethlisberger does by holding on to the ball too long.

San Diego on their road games avg. 245 passing yds. & 86 avg. rushing yds. What is it with these teams, all their RBs knitting sweaters out there? Their opponents are allowed to get 221 passing yds. & 116 rushing yds.

Pittsburgh while playing at home pass for 201 avg. yds. & rush for 109 avg. yds. See they knit in the clubhouse not on the field. The teams they play at home are getting 199 avg. passing yds. & 118 avg. rushing yds.

We could see SD get 219 to 225 passing yds. & 99 to 105 rushing. Pittsburgh wiil end up with 208 to 214 passing yds. & 109 to 115 rushing yds.

SIDELINE: Pittsburgh's 4 losses came against pass oriented teams

SD 11TH OFF; PIT 1ST DEF
SD 20TH RUN; PIT 2ND VS. RUN
SD 7TH PASS; PIT 1ST VS. PASS
SD 2ND PTS; PIT 1ST PTS ALLOWED

PIT 22ND OFF; SD 25TH DEF
PIT 23RD RUN; SD 11TH VS. RUN
PIT 17TH PASS; SD 31ST VS. PASS
PIT 20TH PTS; SD 15TH PTS ALLOWED

FIGHT, FIGHT, FIGHT, WIN, WIN, WIN... Both defenses are going to have to be like on Claritin and see everything clearly. More than likely Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson will not play or very limited. That super charged rabbitt named Sproles could cause trouble, but with him playing more he could lose that energy as the game gos on. Pittsburgh will pressure Rivers into mistakes, more than likely and will have to protect Big Ben from to many hits, so look for alot of shotgun hikes...MY PICK - SAN DIEGO 16 - 12 Pittsburgh


Superbowl is close...

Well - How about them Cubs?

You know that age old saying ,that people say when they want to diffuse a situation or change the subject...Fits here...............

After hours of research and number crunching and constant e-mails from football fans, what do you end what with? It all comes down to 50% stats & 25% guessing & 25% gut feeling...

Actually probably more gut then anything else, while I was writing and analysing all the stats for this weekends game, inside my gut was telling me they're going to be upsets, there always is...

I thought the Colts could/would do it, but my gut feeling on the Atl/Ariz game was that Arizona was going to pull a rabbit out of the hat and then make the elephant disappear...Yes they did...

How the up-sets happen? let's look for a minute and see:

Atl @ Ariz: My earlier prediction - - Key points to watch for: To win Atlanta QB Matt Ryan needs to throw at maxium only 1 interception. Atlantas RBs Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood need to combine for 100+ yds. Should handle the job with a offense that has a 32 total ranking.

For Arizona to win their defense needs to pressure Ryan into mistakes/interceptions and keep Turner/Norwood from rushing 100 yds. Of course with a defense total ranking of 85, might make for a long day...

Well Mr Ryan, threw 2 interceptions and all other game stats showed that when he throws more than 1, Atlanta has loss. He also was sacked 3 times. Turner & Norwood had 54 yards combined, not the 100+ they needed to win. Side stats this year also, has been that when Atlanta does not score first, they have lost, Arizona scored first... Arizona did what they needed to do to win, pressured Ryan into mistakes/interceptions and kept the Turner/Norwood team from 100 yards...

Colts @ S.D. : My earlier prediction - - Key points to watch for: To win Indy must find a way to keep SD RB Tomlinson from the ball (-20 carries) or keeping him at minimum yardage. (-40), while at the same time picking up Sproles. Also, 2 to 3 sacks on Rivers will help immensely. Very doable if their total 48th ranking defense comes to play.

For San Diego to win, they have to hope by chance that P.Manning of early season shows up. If not that than defense needs to sack him 3+ times and force 2+ TOs, also keep in check Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes from racking up yds, while containing Reggie Wayne from getting in the open so much. Hard to do when your defense has a total ranking of 82...

First off, Indy really could have done better at keeping Tomlinson from the ball, he was hurt and only played the 1st half, and even at that he had 25 yards and 1 TD. The other thing was SPROLES! the man is like the Duracell energizing rabbit - 105 yards & 2 TDs - well they didn't pick him up, like they needed to. Indy did get the sacks, 4 of them but could not capitalize on any of them... Oh! and then there's Dungy, racing down field to call a time out when Indy was leading and with 30+ seconds left to play - what was that about?? Colt penalties on SD final drive in OT, did not help them either...

San Diego, had to deal with a very good Peyton Manning - 310 yards & 1 TD, and they only got to sack him once but, that sack came at the most critical time of the game, in OT and throwing him for a 8 yds lost back on Indys 1 yard line. Indy had no turnovers, SD did keep Addai & Rhodes from having any break out runs - they only had 56 combine yds & 1 TD. Reggie Wayne though had his way with SD defense - 129 yds. receiving and was helped by A. Gonzalez who had 97 yds. receiving. So this game did actually come down to a 50/50 toss-up and SD came out with the better half of the 50/50....

So where do you go from here on today's games? Last night we had 2 under-dog home teams win, will that happen today? or will we have the opposite and 2 favored away teams win or maybe 1 of each. I don't know...

Right now @ 9am Sunday morning, my gut tells me it's time for breakfast and that I don't think the up-sets are done yet. Which team will pull them off, it's hard to say. The stats are in the article below, and I'm sticking with my picks, because there is a 50/50 percent chance that I'll be right and that's all anybody can ask for out of life - a 50/50 percent chance to be right........

See you later this week........