SUPER BOWL 2009 NFL SEASON

So here we are, at the Super Bowl and according to past games & stats will be played by 2 of the last remaining teams still standing - New Orleans Saints & Indianapolis Colts.

I have hear wild predictions so far as to scores being 45 to 24, 42 to 28, 52 to 45 and then there some more reasonable predictions 31 to 28, 31 to 27, 38 to 31 etc...

As I have noticed through this season for the most part whenever you had 2 high -offense teams meet, it always seemed like you ended with a low scoring game - reason? defense!

So lets start this puppy...






New Orleans Saints vs Indianapolis Colts




First off, it doesn't matter which team has been chosen to be home team. In my book this is away game for both teams.

Colts - looking at their away game stats minus the last Buffalo game (which they were not trying to win very hard) they come in at 218 PF & 121 PA in 7 games. That averages out to 31.1PF & 17.3 PA per game.

Saints - their away game stats are 246PF & 146PA in 7 games. That averages out to 35.1PF & 20.9PA per game. NOW, if you add in the last away game at Carolina they had (which some people say they were trying to win, others say different) then you have 256PF & 169PA in 8 games. That averages out to 32PF & 21.1PA per game.

There is where the difference is folks - in my books this is going to be a brutally close game. The only way I see this as not being close is if one team or both teams come in playing like 1st time High School football kids. The other outside reason would be bad official calling like they had during the Saints/Viking game. ( calling a TD when the guy is down 3 ft from the goal line????)

That's it! you can ponder this, you can ponder that, you can figure till you're blue in the face or read every possible stat there is, but the bottom line will be - how will the teams show up to play after 2 weeks off?


I'm betting on a close game, with COLTS winning 26 to 24...


Be seeing you, Knobby

Week 20 - Conference Championships - 2009 Season

Woo Woo! Woof Woof who lets the dogs out! 4 out 4 last week in picks!!! As in the words of Yogi Berra, that's like getting all of them right...

So here we are at the Championship Games - lets take a look see at what we got...


N.Y.Jets @ Indianapolis Colts - Following the Jets and their progress these last several weeks I have noticed that they are getting weery and defense although tops is ruffling around the edges.

This last game against SD, they came on top by a slim margin, because SD field goal kicker missed 3 FGs and Jets did not play sharp like they did against Cincinnati. Road travel getting to them? 4 roads game in 5 weeks!

Check some stats and you'll see that out of 5 meaningful games Jets have played on road (N.O., Miami, N. Eng., Cinn.,S.D.) against better teams the defense is not to tops. 114 total pts. gave up for an avg of 22.8 per game.

Colts defense looked good against Baltimore. Peyton and offense IMO was a little off, especially on some of his long throws. Other than that it seems like the resting did actually help the Colts this year.

Looking at their 5 meaningful home games against some top teams (Houston, N. Eng., Tenn., Denver, Baltimore) and you get a defense that has gave up only 87 total pts. for an avg. of 17.4 per game. Not to shabby...

I stand with my Colts and I do believe the travel will hit the Jets at Lucas Oil Stadium > Colts 26 - - Jets 18


Minnesota @ New Orleans - most people think this is a match up of two high flying teams, when IMO it's just one. I don't believe either will score in the 40's or 50's and only one will probably reach 30 pts.

Defense as usual in all these games will be the key and N.O. has a better defense by a slight margin. Minnesota has not played well on the road all year and after the few weeks of rest that N.O. had, it seems like they were back in form against Arizona.

As much as I would like to see Brett Favre make it this year I just don't think it will happen. Minnesota defense will not be able to contain Brees to any hopeful point. Although I don't see either team blowing the other out, I do believe N.O. will come out on top.

I might add this little disclaimer: that this game more so than the Jets/Colts game could go either way, NO by upright win or Minn. with a few lucky ticks at the right moment > New Orleans 30 - - Minnesota 25


Be seeing you, Knobby...

Week 19 - 2009 Playoffs

Welcome to week 19 of NFL 2009 season!

Some good games played last week, I ended up 2 for 2 winning my Jets & Arizona picks and losing my New Eng. & Phil. picks

First, I want to give you a couple of little playoff history tidbits here: In the last 6 playoff seasons 2003 - 2008 there has been a home team and/or a bye week team play in the Super Bowl.

2003 - New England { #1 defense AFC & over-all } - Home team adv. & bye week - won SB - - Carolina { #3 defense NFC & #6 over-all } lost SB but had home field 1 time & no bye week.

2004 - New England { #2 defense AFC & over-all } - Home team adv. & bye week - won SB - - Philadelphia { #1 defense NFC & #3 over-all } lost SB but had home field adv and bye week.

2005 - Seattle { #3 defense NFC & #7 over-all } - Home team adv. & bye week - lost SB - - Pittsburgh { #2 defense AFC & #4 over-all } won SB, played all 3 playoff game away & no bye week.

2006 - Chicago { #1 defense NFC & #3 over-all } - Home team adv. & bye week - lost SB - - Colts { #6 defense AFC & #11 over-all } won SB and had home field 2 times & no bye week.

2007 - New England { #3 defense AFC & #4 over-all } - Home team adv. & bye week - lost SB - - NYG { #6 defense NFC & #12 over-all } won SB played all 3 playoff games away & no bye week.

2008 - Pittsburgh { #1 defense AFC & #1 over-all } - Home team adv. & bye week - won SB - - Arizona { #6 defense NFC & #12 over-all } had home field 2 times & no bye week.

Defense can win Games! Be it strong, lucky, skilled or any and all 3, Defense can win Games.

Not a 100 % sure bet, but close. The odds of a better defense team winning and moving on during season, playoffs are in their favor more than not.


My winning picks are in the usual RED...


Saturday Games:

Arizona @ New Orleans - Arizona ranks 4th defense in NFC & 10th over-all among the playoff teams. New Orleans ranks 6th defense in NFC & 12th over-all.

New Orleans has rested they hurt while Arizona has gotten new hurts. Warner & crew played well against GB but their defense was slowly fading as it got further & further into game.

I think we will see a re-new N. O. team and they will give the home fans a little something to cheer about...

Baltimore @ Indianapolis - Baltimore ranks 2th defense in AFC & 3rd over-all among the playoff teams. Indianapolis ranks 5th defense AFC & 7th over-all.

Let me first say that I hope Colts management knows what their doing by what they have done!

Anyways, Baltimore came out fast and played hot against N..Eng. but N. Eng. seemed to be missing alot of alot like motivation, tackles, spunk, drive, etc.

Colts all season had a nick-knack paddy whack for somehow, somewhere pulling wins out of the hat. Hopefully their players are rested and not out of sinc. I stand by them again this week as usual...

Sunday Games:

Dallas @ Minnesota - Dallas ranks #1 defense NFC & #2 over-all among playoff teams. Minnesota ranks #3 defense in NFC & #8 over-all.

Well Dallas has surprise me, they've played really well, much better than I thought they would in the last several weeks. But they head to Minnesota where Mr. Favre is Mr. Perfect.

Dallas defense has gotten stronger in last weeks of play and Minnesota's has been good all along.

Only thing you have to look for is strength of opposing teams and could they be the reason for an improving defense or a seemly strong one. Looking at games for both teams Minnesota has a slight edge in playing stronger teams. I just don't think Dallas can carry it for another week.

N. Y. Jets @ San Diego - Jets rank #1 defense AFC & overall among playoff teams. S.D. ranks #6 AFC & 9th over-all.

Jets looked damn good against Cincinnati and why not they had motivation, defense, etc. and like I said last week I like the way the Jets look - good American football.

San Diego has been on a terror streak these last 11 weeks and alot of people are saying they could win SB. They haven't played the Jets yet!

For the Pro Football U-pickem gang - - Jets 22 - SD 20

See you all later, Knobby

Week 18 - 2009 Playoffs

Well now we begin the tense weeks of football where if your favorite team loses than that is it! done, gone, finished for season...

I, myself & me finished the regular season picking with 154 right out of 256 games giving me a 60% pick avg. Which means I'm average - lol, some out there picked worse and some picked a way lot better, but it's all for fun, right???????

Saturday Games:

N.Y.Jets @ Cincinnati - A re-do of what we just saw yesterday. I was impressed with the Jets yesterday, good tough playing. I like Jets Defense, in last 6 games (not including these last 2 with Colts,Cincinnati) Jets have allowed 87 pts which works out to 14.5 a game. Cincinnati in the same game span has allowed 107 pts or 17.8 a game.

Taking all into consideration - I believe the Jets will hold tight, have momentum on their side and squeak out a win, be it ever so close...

Philadelphia @ Dallas - Another re-do game of yesterday. Oh, what a mystery game Mr. Reid can play with his players. If for one moment Dallas thinks they scored something yesterday, they are in for a surprise come this game. Dallas needed that game yesterday, Phillips needed that game yesterday, Jerry Jones needed that game yesterday - Mcnabb did not, Reid did not, Eagles did not, but they need this game and will get it...

Sunday Games:

Baltimore @ New England - Check the back records of N.Eng and you will see that although Baltimore has improved and I like them as a team, they just are not going to have what it takes to take down New England on their own turf...

Green Bay @ Arizona - Another re-do game - let say this, Green Bay did not play Arizona yesterday, almost all of Arizona's first-team defense played only one possession and Kurt Warner sat after one quarter. Aaron Rodgers played three quarters, mostly against Arizona reserves.

Look at GB's losses, most of their losses have all came at the hands of high passing teams. Out of GB's 5 road wins, 4 have been against St. Louis, Detroit, Chicago and Arizona reserves, hardly record breaking teams there.

On the other hand Arizona has not played good at home and their wins at home have been over weak teams (Houston, Seattle, St. Louis) and their win over Minnesota was because Minnesota plays as bad on the road as Arizona does at home.

Still looking at a tough game but my edge is going to a full Arizona team this week...

Week 17 - Sunday Games - 2009 Season

Welcome to the last regular week of NFL football - this week will be like throwing darts at balloons with the wind blowing. Some teams are still in the hunt for playoff spots, while others are just going to try to end on a positive note or two. So picking winners this week is guessing which teams will do what with their starters, which teams are good enough to win with 3rd string players, etc, etc,.

As usual my winning picks are in that fabulous color RED!

COLTS

Jacksonville

New Orleans - I am changing this pick over to Carolina, because NO staff have decided to sit the big kids. Don't want them hurt over a silly little game, now do we???

Dallas

Detroit

Houston

Miami

Minnesota

N.Y. Jets

San Francisco

Atlanta

Arizona

Baltimore

Washington

Denver

Tennessee 24 - Seattle 17

See you next week for the playoffs!!!!! Knobby...