2008 - Week 18 - Wildcard Games

Atlanta @ Arizona

Atlanta (11-5): For road games they score 19.2 avg pts and give up 20.1 avg pts. For road dome games they score 24.5 avg pts. and give up 23 avg pts.
Their TO avg. is 1.4 with a penalty avg. of 5 for 42 yds

Sideline: They have won 4 road games - 2 against losing avg. teams, 1 against a 8-8 team and 1 against winning avg teams. They have lost 4 road games against 3 winning avg. teams & 1 against a 8-8 team. In 3 road games they were listed as favorites (53% > 83%) - they won 2 and lost 1. Atlanta is currently listed as 77% to 80% favorites...

Arizona (9-7): For home/dome games they score 30.2 avg pts and give up 22.2 avg pts.
Their TO avg. is 1.2 with a penalty avg. of 7 for 53 yds.

Sideline: They have won 6 home games - 4 against losing avg. teams and 2 against winning avg. teams. They have lost 2 home games against 2 winning avg. teams. In 3 home games they were listed as under-dogs (25% > 30%) - they won 2 & lost 1.
Arizona is currently listed as 20% to 23% underdogs...

Key points to watch for: To win Atlanta QB Matt Ryan needs to throw at maxium only 1 interception. Atlantas RBs Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood need to combine for 100+ yds. Should handle the job with a offense that has a 32 total ranking.

For Arizona to win their defense needs to pressure Ryan into mistakes/interceptions and keep Turner/Norwood from rushing 100 yds. Of course with a defense total ranking of 85, might make for a long day... MY PICK: ATLANTA


Indianapolis @ San Diego

Up-Date: Tomlinson, Gates miss 2nd practice. Real or Ploy? See - Injury

Indianapolis (12-4): for road games they score 21.5 avg. pts. and give up 22.1 avg.pts. For road grass games they score 22.0 avg.pts. and give up 23.1 avg.pts.
Their TO avg. is 1.4 with a penalty avg. of 6 for 43 yds.

Sideline: They have won 6 out of 8 road games - 2 against winning avg. teams, 2 against 8 -8 teams, 2 against losing avg.teams. They have lost 2 road games - 1 against a winning avg. team and 1 against a losing avg. team. They were listed as favorites in 6 of them with a percent range of 71% > 97% - they won 5 & lost 1. The other 2 road games, they were listed as underdogs with a percent range of 26% > 27% - they lost 1 and won 1.... Indianapolis is currently listed as 80% favorites.


San Diego (8-8): For home games they score 30.5 avg. pts and give up 19.6 avg.pts. For grass games they score 28.3 avg. pts and give up 21.6 avg. pts.
Their TO avg. is 0.9 with a penalty avg. of 6 for 43 yds.

Sideline: They have won 5 out of 8 home games - 2 against winning avg. teams, 2 against losing avg. teams and 1 against a 8-8 team. They have lost 3 home games all against winning avg. teams. In 6 home games they were listed as favorites to win with a percent range of 63% > 96% - they won 5 & lost 1. The other 2 home games they were listed as underdogs to lose with a percent range of 18% > 45% - they lost both. San Diego is currently listed as 20% underdogs.

Key points to watch for: To win Indy must find a way to keep SD RB Tomlinson from the ball (-20 carries) or keeping him at minimum yardage. (-40), while at the same time picking up Sproles. Also, 2 to 3 sacks on Rivers will help immensely. Very doable if their total 48th ranking defense comes to play.

For San Diego to win, they have to hope by chance that P.Manning of early season shows up. If not that than defense needs to sack him 3+ times and force 2+ TOs, also keep in check Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes from racking up yds, while containing Reggie Wayne from getting in the open so much. Hard to do when your defense has a total ranking of 82... MY PICK: INDIANAPOLIS

Baltimore @ Miami

Baltimore (11-5): For road games they score 25.6 avg pts. and give up 20.5 avg. pts. Grass games they score 24.2 avg. pts. and give up 14.3 avg. pts. Their TO avg. is 1.2 with a penalty avg. of 6 for 48 yds.

Sideline: They have played 6 road games, (since & including Miami win) they have won 5 and lost 1. The 1 they lost was against the Giants(12-4) - the 5 they won were against Miami(11-5), who were 2-3 at the time they played, Cleveland(4-12), Houston(8-8), Cincinnati(4-11), Dallas(9-7).

Don't let the Dallas win fool you, that was in last 2 weeks of season, with the Dallas team being a coaches worse nightmare. Not much better standing teams then Miami has played against, and as with Miami, the wins looks good on paper, but Baltimore had a hard time with the stronger team.

In their 8 road games, they were listed as percentage under-dogs (11% > 49%) in 6 of them - they won 3 & lost 3. In the other 2 they were listed as percent favorites (80% > 97%) - they won both. Baltimore is currently listed as 55% to 60% favorites.

Miami (11-5): For home games they score 18.6 avg. pts. and give up 20.5 avg pts. Grass games they 22.1 avg. pts. and give up 21.5 avg. pts.
Their TO avg. is 0.9 with a penalty avg. of 5 for 44 yds.

Sideline: They have played 6 home games, (since & including balt. lost) they have won 4 and lost 2. The 2 they lost were against Balt.(11-5) & N.E.(11-5) - the 4 they won were against Buffalo(7-9), Seattle(4-12), Oakland(5-11), San Francisco(7-9). As you can see Miami's 4 victories all though looking good on paper were against much weaker teams. When going up against a little stronger win percentage teams, they seem to have had a hard time.

Out of the total 8 home games Miami had - in 4 they were listed as percentage under-dogs with a range of 11% > 49% chance of winning - they won 2 & lost 2. In the 4 they were listed as favorites with a percent range of 67% > 98% chance of winning - they won 3 & lost 1.
Miami is currently listed as 40% to 45% underdogs.

Key points to watch for: To win Miami needs to get to Flacco and make him throw interceptions, that has been the key between these 2 teams since last year. They also have to dazzle - up their "wildcat" package and get Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams some running yds, somewhere between 100 to 130 combined.

For Baltimore to win, they need Flacco perfect and since last meeting the Dolphins have made great improvements in their secondary pass coverage in the second half of the season. Miami pass rush could hurt Baltimore also. LeRon McClain and Willis McGahee, could help if they get yardage of 100 or so... MY PICK: MIAMI


Philadelphia @ Minnesota

(NOTE) - Just the road/home/dome games point stats below are limited. Philadelphia's are from the tie game with Cincinnati to end of season - this is the period that McNabb was benched and then came back alive. Minnesota's are from the 3 home games that Jackson has played QB in, since it looks like he will be playing instead of Frerotte...

Philadelphia(9-6-1): For road games they score 10.7 avg. pts. and give up 18.3 avg.pts. they have not played a dome game this year. Their TO avg. is 1.9 with a penalty avg. of 5 for 39 yds.

Sideline: First off you have to wonder which McNabb & Eagle team will show up? the one that put away Arizona and Dallas @ home or the one that didn't even get a TD @ Washington. McNabbs mood is key to Philadelphia games and since tieing with Cincinnati he has not been all that great in away games, no matter what he has done at home. (13-13 @ Cin., 7-36 @ Balt., 20-14 @ Nyg., 3-10 @ Wash.)

With Philadelphias 8 road games, they were listed as favorites in 5 with percent range of 80% > 97% - they won 2 - lost 2 - tied 1. In 3 games they were listed as under-dogs with a percent range of 11% > 35% - they won 1 & lost 2. Philadelphia is currently listed as 65% to 70% favorites.

Minnesota(10-6): For home/dome games (under Jackson) they score 17.3 avg.pts and give up 20.3 avg. pts. Their TO avg. is 1.9 with a penalty avg. of 5 for 43 yds.

Sideline: Jackson hasn't been tearing anybody up either. He started the first 2 games of the season and was benched and then came back on in week 14 against Detroit. Opposite of McNabb, Jackson seems to play better away then home, although his home games have been close ones that could have went either way...

In 3 of Minnesotas home games they were listed as percentage underdogs with a range of 24% > 42% chance of winning - they won 2 & lost 1. In 4 they were listed as favorites in the percent range of 66% > 96% - they won 3 & lost 1. In 1 game they were listed as a 50% chance of winning - they won that... Minnesota is currently listed as 30% to 35% underdogs.

Key points to watch for: RBs - Brian Westbrook for Philadelphia & Adrian Peterson for Minnesota. Which ever team can control the others RB will probably be the difference in winning and losing. Minnesota has a much better run defense than Philadelphia. Minnesota also has to find some glue or super-sticky gloves for Peterson to wear during this game...
Pass-Happy Reid will probably challenge Minnesota's secondary with a pass-first offense, but only if they're running the ball effectively.

If Minnesota is to win they must first score early and keep a lead. They must keep Westbrook under a 100 yds & out of the endzone and have DE Jared Allen and DT Kevin Williams continue their very good ball defending. Pressure on McNabb wouldn't hurt either... Which in turn would put the screws to the pass-first offense.

For Philadelphia to win they have to have the right McNabb playing and Westbrook has to break free and help out with more than 60-70 yds rushing, especially in the red zone. They also have to corral Minn. RB Peterson and the receivers have to hold on to the ball when thrown it, which they seem of lately to be slacking on, not helping McNabb and his mood...The Eagles have the talent but they also have the tendency to self-destruct...MY PICK: MINNESOTA


Superbowl here we come............

2008 - Week 18/19 - Playoff Pairings

Wild-card Playoffs

Saturday, Jan. 3rd

Atlanta @ Arizona - 4:30pm
Indianapolis @ San Diego - 8:00pm


Sunday, Jan. 4th

Baltimore @ Miami - 1:00pm
Philadelphia @ Minnesota - 4:30pm

---
Divisional Playoffs

Saturday, Jan. 10 / Sunday, Jan. 11

TBD @ Carolina
TBD @ N.Y. Giants
TBD @ Tennessee
TBD @ Pittsburgh

2008 - Week 17 - All Games

AFC Teams already in Playoffs:

Tenn
Indy
Pitt

AFC teams needing win and/or help to make it in Playoffs:

Miami
N.E.
Jets
Balt.
Denver
S.D.

NFC teams already in Playoffs:

N.Y.G.
Atl.
Carolina
Ariz.

NFC teams needing win and/or help to make it in Playoffs:

Dallas
Phill.
T.B.
Minn.
Chi.

This week will be a hodge podge of mixed teams, some playing because they have to others playing because they need wins or just to prove to themselves they're still good. So makes it hard to pick winners this week, because of sit out players or teams/players who just want it over - vs - teams/players who still have some pride or fight in them...

ALL MY PICKS ARE SUBJECT TO LATE MINUTE CHANGES. PLEASE CHECK BACK OFTEN SO NOT TO MISS UP-DATED PICK CHOICES. THANK YOU...

The following are my picks:

ATLANTA - Can get the second seed and a bye if they win. It is St. Louis after all...

NEW ENGLAND - New England is playing well offensively when it matters; their defense is vulnerable but good enough, they need to win...

KANSAS CITY - Kansas City continues to play hard despite being over matched in talent about every week, not this week, but a win here will not save Edwards job. Bye, Bye...

GREEN BAY - Detroit will be making history this week as 1st team ever 0-16... This year Rod Marinelli has been the Tigers Alan Tramble of the Lions. Hung out to die...

INDIANAPOLIS - Maybe, just maybe, Dungy will play his starters long enough to get a win and to stay in game shape. If not, then seriously, I don't expect them to go far in playoffs... That has been Dungys downfall when playoff time hits, not only in Indy but also T.B., he likes to rest players...

MINNESOTA - The Giants have already locked up home field in the playoffs but we're told they will not rest players this game, want-a bet?... Besides Minn. needs the win just to make sure they go to playoffs on a postive note...

NEW ORLEANS - Carolina is in, plays bad on road & N.O. will still play good & hard at home...

PITTSBURGH - They might rest some players later in game, but playing against Cleveland they could take the day off...

TAMPA BAY - Tampa needs win and lucky them they play Oakland. Chuckie should be smiling...

HOUSTON - Houston is a talent powerhouse @ home and Chicago has just been damn lucky...

SAN FRANCISCO - They're going to end this year in style and Washington will see to it...

BALTIMORE - Baltimore needs a win and Jacksonville is not going to stand in their way...

MIAMI - Hey Brett! Surprise, Surprise....you lose again.. Retire will Ya.....It's been great, but show's over, go sell some more jeans...

PHILADELPHIA - Both teams need a win and Romo had some illness bug this week, so McNabb should please the home crowd this week...

SEATTLE - Seattle is out to send Holmgren with good stats and Arizona since clinching title spot 2 weeks ago have just shown up to games and practiced...

SUNDAY NIGHT GAME - SAN DIEGO - They have been playing forward, while Denver has been playing backwards, which is good, I've never liked that beady eyed Shanahan...

2008 - Week 16 - All Games

Sorry for the abbreviated version this week of picks, but too much at hand and too little time...

COLTS

DALLAS

CINCINNATI

NEW ORLEANS

PITTSBURGH

MIAMI

SAN FRANCISCO

NEW ENGLAND

TAMPA BAY

SEATTLE

HOUSTON

DENVER

PHILADELPHIA

MINNESOTA

SUNDAY NITE GAME - - CAROLINA - 26 / NY GIANTS - 24

MONDAY NITE GAME - - CHICAGO

2008 Playoff Picture

Playoff Look as of 12/21/2008


AFC

1. Tennessee Titans 12-2#=
2. Pittsburgh Steelers 11-3#=
3. New York Jets 9-5
4. Denver Broncos 8-6
5. Indianapolis Colts 11-4*
6. Baltimore Ravens 10-5
7. Miami Dolphins 9-5
8. New England Patriots 9-5
9. Houston Texans 7-7
10. Buffalo Bills 6-8
11. San Diego Chargers 6-8
12. Jacksonville Jaguars 5-10
13. Cleveland Browns 4-10
14. Oakland Raiders 3-11
15. Cincinnati Bengals 2-11-1
16. Kansas City Chiefs 2-12

#-Clinched division
=-Clinched 1st round bye
*-Clinched 5th seed in AFC Playoffs

NFC

1. New York Giants 11-3#
2. Carolina Panthers 11-3*
3. Minnesota Vikings 9-5
4. Arizona Cardinals 8-6#
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-5
6. Atlanta Falcons 9-5
8. Philadelphia Eagles 8-5-1
8. Dallas Cowboys 9-6
9. Chicago Bears 8-6
10. Washington Redskins 7-7
11. New Orleans Saints 7-7
12. Green Bay Packers 5-9
13. San Francisco 49ers 5-9
14. Seattle Seahawks 3-11
15. St. Louis Rams 2-12
16. Detroit Lions 0-14

#-Clinched division
=-Clinched 1st round bye
*-Clinched playoff spot

Week 15 Thursday Nite game Recap

Click on game title below for complete game stats. from NFL.com


New Orleans @ Chicago


Ok this is what I predicted on my analysis: "I see Brees throwing 240 to 275 yds, 2 int, 2 touchdowns, Bush & Thomas combine for 125 - 130 yds total and maybe a TD.

I see Orton throwing 200 to 220 yds, 1 int, 1-TD, Forte, Jones and Peterson combine for 145 - 165 total and 2 - TDs"

also

"Look for Saints to box up the front to try and stop Forte, but that will only give Orton opportunity to throw middle and secondary to Davis & Hester.Brees will start fast and early throwing trying to rock Chi. defense, so that Bush & Thomas have room, I don't see it working, look for 2 to 3 sacks in fact...MY PICK - CHICAGO"

Lets see how I did;

Brees had 226 passing yds - short of what I said he would have. He did have 2 int and 2 tds, I was right on that prediction. Bush & Thomas combine for 117 yds with Karney & Brees adding 2 more for 119 total, with 1 td, just a little short on yardage of what I said, but correct on TD prediction for them..

Orton had 172 passing yds - he was was short of what I said of him getting. He also had 2 - ints but 0 - tds - I predicted 1 int & 1 td. Forte & Peterson only got 49 yds rushing combined with Orton adding 6 more for total of 55 - way short of what I thought they would get. Jones was not a factor. They did however get the 2 tds I predicted.

Davis & Hester did get some passes for a total of 58 yds. Brees did come out throwing and Bush & Thomas had some open room. However Chicago had just 1 sack compared to my saying maybe 2 or 3..

Saints did go over their road avg. (5 -42 ) for penalties with 5 for 97 yds while Chicago stay right about avg (3 - 27) for home games penalties with 4 - 24 yds...

Chicago wins 27 to 24...

2008 - Week 15 - Sunday games

ALL MY PICKS ARE SUBJECT TO LATE MINUTE CHANGES. PLEASE CHECK BACK OFTEN SO NOT TO MISS UP-DATED PICK CHOICES. THANK YOU...


NEW FEATURE ADDED: To check injury report from NFL, just click on the bold game titles above each analysis...Thank You...

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta

Another short road trip for TB crew, but it doesn't seem to matter, they lose away, no matter the distance.. KS-IS (knobby self-inflicted stats) are:

Last 3 road games avg. for TB is 30.3 pts for & 28.3 against, turnover avg on road is 2.0 with penalties at 6 -46yds...

Last 3 home game avg. for Carolina is 34.6 pts. for & 24 pts against, turnover avg @ home is 0.7 with penalties at 4 -37yds.....

Atlanta is 5 - 1 @ home and 8-1 when they score first. This is another game where both teams need a win to hold on to whatever little chance they have for playoffs...MY PICK - ATLANTA

Tennessee @ Houston

First 2 - 1/2 or 3 quarters will be a reg game, than IMO Tenn. will start dropping their starters and Houston playing for pride, depending on how far behind they are, will make a run to win the game...MY PICK - TENNESSEE

Green Bay @ Jacksonville

Another game where both teams are really out of playoffs unless all of a sudden the other 30 teams all die.....But they should be playing at least for pride between these 2 and which one will have more pride?

Jacksonville is 1 - 5 @ home --- Green Bay is 2 - 4 on road

KS-IS for game are:

Last 3 road game avg. for GB is 24 pts. for & 32.6 pts. against, turnover avg. on road is 1.8 with penalties at 6 -54 yds.

Last 3 homes game avg. for Jac. is 14.3 pts. for & 25.6 pts. against, turnover avg. @ home is 1.5 with penalties at 6 -55 yds.

So where's the difference between these two, since above stats reflect very poorly for both...
Coaches! Jack Del Rio IMO has lost his players and locker room in the last mth. or so. Mike McCarthy on the other hand was thoroughly disgusted with losing last week and I see him getting his team up and playing for something...MY PICK - GREEN BAY


San Francisco @ Miami

Something has happened to SF in just the last 3/4 games, they are on a terror streak. This week they bring their terror train to Miami who is in a three-way tie atop the AFC East with the Jets and Patriots.

KS-IS for game is:

Last 3 road game avg. for SF is 18.3 pts. for & 22.3 pts. against, turnover avg for road is 2.2 with penalties @ 8 -66 NOTE:( if you throw in @ home vs Jets game their game avg. gos to 20 pts. for & 20.3 pts. against)

Last 3 home game avg. for Miami is 22 pts. for & 27.1 pts against, turnover avg. for home is 1.0 with penalties @ 5 -41 yds.

At time of writing this Niners Frank Gore is questionable for playing (ankle) as is CB Nate Clements (fractured thumb)

So what does Knobbys muddy tire tales ( KMTT) tell me about this game:

Look for SF Shaun Hill to get 170 to 185 passing yds, 1 td, 1 int. Gore ?, Foster, Robinson will combine for 90 to 110 yds rushing, 1 td. Look also for defense to get a couple of sacks and 2 to 3 turnovers and maybe a defensive TD.

On Miami side look for Chad Pennington to get 195 to 205 passing yds, 1 tds, 2 int. Brown ,Williams, Cobbs will combine for 130 to 140 yds. rushing, 2 tds. Miami defense should come up with also a couple of sacks and maybe 1 turnover.

Don't look for more than a 1/2 pt win...MY PICK - SAN FRANCISCO


Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

WOW! 2 rough & tumble teams here again this year. Pittsburgh can wrap up the AFC North title with a win, while the Ravens with a win would deadlock the teams at 10-4 with 2 games left. So let's get right to KS-IS for the game:

Last 3 road game avg for Pittsburgh is 31.3 pts. for & 8.6 pts. against with turnover avg. for road is 1.0, with penalties @ 7 - 62 yds.

Last 3 home game avg for Baltimore is 29.6 pts for & 9 pts against with turnover avg. for home is 1.5, with penalties @ 7 - 52 yds.

So what does KMTT speak to me about this game?

Turnovers, penalties will decide who gets the last field goal to win.

Look for Big Ben to get 195 to 210 passing yds, 1 td, 2 int., Parker, Moore, Russell to co - share a very stingy 58 to 68 yds rushing, 1 td, 1 turnover.

On Baltimore side, Flacco could get 165 to 175 yds. passing, 1 td, 1int., McClain, Rice, McGahee will probably get 85 to 95 combine yds. rushing, 1 td.

Baltimore defense will probably get more sacks on Ben than Steelers do on Flacco, and both defenses will probably get a couple turnovers...MY PICK - BALTIMORE


SUNDAY NITE GAME:

N. Y. Giants @ Dallas

Up-Dated analysis: 12/12

Jacobs is out and Barber is still questionable... so how much of a impact will that have on game? Jacobs is a workhorse and would have rough & bullied his way through Cowboys O-line, that eases their job and maybe puts more pressure on Manning to try running himself more, not good. Barber was not really a factor last week, what killed it for Dallas was player Brain Farts.

I still see trouble on the field rising from Cowboy camp, and dare I say that some giants could help stir the pot a little, by words or actions???? I stay with my pick as stated below...
-- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Well,well, well their back again to do battle, who will be the winner this time?

Lets starts with our KS-IS and see from there:

Last 3 road game avg. for NYG is, 32 pts. for & 22.3 pts. against, turnover avg for road is 1.0 with penalty avg. of 6 - 50 yds.

Last 3 home game avg. for Dallas is, 27.3 pts. for & 13.3 pts. against, turnover avg. for home is 1.2 with penalty avg. of 6 - 52 yds.

Dallas needs this win to stay in the mess of the wild-card chances, Giants with a lost could move down a notch from top spot. Cowboys seem to have 'special' problems amongst themselves, that reflect on the field, these 'special' problems especially come to surface when losing late in games. Giants also are having their share of 'special' troubles, but I don't think it's what made them play poorly last week.

My KMTT tells me to look for:

NYG - E. Manning to get 222 to 232 passing yds, 2 tds, 0 int., Ward, Bradshaw, Ware?, Manning to combine for 97 to 105 yds. rushing, 1 td, 1 turnover.

Cowboys - T. Romo to get 247 to 257 passing yds, 2 tds, 2 ints., Barber? Choice, Romo stack up together for 93 to 100 yds. rushing, 1 tds, 1 turnover.

Both defenses to get sacks in (2/3 a piece)...Special teams maybe for a win...MY PICK - N.Y. GIANTS 31 - DALLAS 28


Rest of Games:

Washington
Seattle
NY Jets
COLTS
Kansas City
Arizona
Carolina
New England


Still to come Monday Nite Game..........