Week 10 - 2009 NFL Season

FRIDAY 11/13/2009 RE-DO OF THIS WEEKS POSTING...

This week we start with the NFL channel broadcasting Thursday night games, so picks and fantasy teams have to be in earlier now. Also starting this week I will go into more depth analysis with each match-up...

Last week I went 9 for 13 (some what of a respectful showing) - making me 77 out of 128 games (60%). There were 6 upsets last week - which raises the weekly upset avg. from last weeks 4.50 to 4.66 upset games a week so far. 4 of the 6 teams with week 8 byes won in week 9 which brings that total to: 14 out 24 teams have won following a bye week.

TEAMS IN RED ARE MY PICKS TO WIN:

Thursday Night Game:

Chicago @ San Francisco - Bears playing in away games have a poor offense & defense, as seen by their away record: 4 away games with total of 64 pts for vs 106 against. 49ers at home play on a much more even keel: 4 homes games with total of 95 PF vs 89 PA. In this match-up 49ers should come up with somewhere between 24 - 26 pts while Bears will probably only muster about 19 to 23 pts.

11/13/09 - San Francisco won last night 10 - 6 over Bears in a really un-bearable game to watch, but even though the pts. were off from what I said they would be the winning range was correct. Overall I had 49ers winning by 3 to 5 pts.

Sunday Early Games:

Atlanta @ Carolina - This match-up could be a toss up this week. Atl in travel games play pretty evenly offensively & defensively: 4 away games with total 103 PF vs 108 PA. Panthers struggle at home in 3 home games so far they have 39 PF vs 75 PA. Look for Atl to get about 25 - 26 pts while Panthers should come up with about 20 - 22, although they could because of Atls loose defense get upwards of 27 - 28 pts and pull off a win. Overall looking at Atlanta winning by 4-5 pts.

Tampa Bay @ Miami - TB pulled a big upset last week at home against GB but, that game withstanding TB still allows too many pts on the road and hasn't been able so far to match it with what they put up: In a total of 3 away games they have 47 PF vs 82 PA. Miamis defense is about the same as TBs only difference is their offense can out score what their defense allows: In 4 home games they have 126 PF vs 110 PA. This game Miami should score somewhere in the range of 28 - 30 pts vs TB which will probably only get 21 to 25 pts. Overall looking at Miami winning by 5 - 7 pts.

Detroit @ Minnesota - With me living in Michigan and although I am 100% COLTS fan, I always have a soft spot in me for the Lions. I always wish them the best and root for them (whenever their not playing the COLTS) but it's a hard team to root for week in and week out. This week is no different - I wish and hope they win but it's just not in the cards again. On the road the Lions defense lets teams score double what their offense puts up: 4 away games and they have 71 PF vs 153 PA. Minnesota at home with Favre now playing for them score pts: 3 home games so far this year with 90 PF vs 78 PA. Based on my math figuring we should see Minn. get 34 - 38 pts this game vs Detroits 21 to 26 pts. Overall looking at Minnesota winning by 12 - 13 pts.

Jacksonville @ N.Y.Jets - Jacksonville is spotty at best in away games, they can score 30 pts or they can score 0 pts. Don't me why or even how they can play like this but they do: 4 road games they have 56 PF vs 109 PA. Jets can be tough at home if their on their game: In 4 home games 78 PF vs 72 PA. Jacksonville should play tough but Jets defense will subdue them, Jacksonville about 16 - 18 pts, Jets getting 23-27 pts. Overall looking at Jets winning by 7 - 9 pts.

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh - Here's another game where either team could win this week. Cincinnati can play on the road and they usually find a way to win: 3 road games this year they stand with 71 PF vs 58 PA. Pittsburgh is tough, no question about it but, they could let down this week after last weeks Denver game and Cincinnati has beat them once this year. Pittsburgh in 4 home games has: 105 PF vs 69 PA. Average math calculations looks for Cincinnati to get 20 - 23 pts and Pittsburgh getting 22 - 26 pts. Overall looking at Pittsburgh winning by 2 - 3 pts.

New Orleans @ St. Louis - OK, lets move on to the next game....But, if by chance St. Louis does win, it would have to go down as major up-set game of the century...

Buffalo @ Tennessee - This is match-up #3 this week that I am seeing as either team winning. Both Buffalo and Tennessee are evenly matched, with the slight edge going to Buffalos defense. The odd man in the whole equation is Vince Young, so far in his two games played since being put in he has played great. Buffalo in 4 road games: 70 PF vs 85 PA - Tennessee in 3 home games has 70 PF vs 78 PA. I'm seeing Buffalo scoring 23-26 pts and Tenn. right around 22-23 pts. Overall looking at Buffalo winning by 1 - 3 pts.

Denver @ Washington - Denver after winning their first 6 games has lost 2 in a row now, so they need this game to straighten the ship. Washingtons offense is pitiful this year, no matter where they play. Denver on the road in 4 away games: 76 PF vs 63 PA. Washington in 4 home games: 48 PF vs 61 PA. Look for Denver to get between 15 to 18 pts this game while Washington ends up with 12 to 14 pts. Overall looking at Denver winning by 3 - 4 pts.

Sunday Late Games:

Kansas City @ Oakland - 2 teams that have not done what they were expecting themselves to do this year. Match-up #4 this week for me as either team having a chance to win. KC in 4 away games have: 73 PF vs 92 PA. Oakland in 4 home games has 36 PF vs 94 PA. Loosely figuring things up in my brain I see KC scoring between 20-23 pts while Oakland could possibly get anywhere from 16 to 23 pts.
Overall looking at Kansas City winning by 3 - 4 pts.

Seattle @ Arizona - 2 teams with loose defenses and Seattle playing poorly on road while Arizona this year has played poorly at home. In 3 road games Seattle has 44 PF vs 95 PA. Arizona fairs a little better in 4 home games with 75 total PF vs 106 total PA. All though this game COULD go either way, Arizona should hold on to win by getting between 24 - 31 pts and holding Seattle to 20 - 25 pts. Overall looking at Arizona winning by 4 - 6 pts.

Dallas @ Green Bay - Where the heck was Green Bay last week in Tampa Bay? Dallas started this year very shaky but since the KC game on 10/11/09 they have played solid. Green Bay seems to have lost track this year, although their record shows 4 victories, they have been against poor teams (Chicago, St.Louis, Detroit, Cleveland). Still this game is not a shoo-in for Dallas: In 4 road games Dallas has 90 total PF vs 74 PA. In 4 home games Green Bay has 97 total PF vs 84 PA. Look for Dallas getting 20-25 pts while GB rounds up about 18-22 pts. Overall looking at Dallas winning by 2 - 3 pts.

Philadelphia @ San Diego - I have said it before and I will say it again - Philadelphia plays whatever way McNabbs feels about the opposing team or QB. Only problem is you don't know how McNabb feels about a game or opposing QB until game time, so it makes it hard to pick whether they will win or not. Phil. in 3 road games has 74 PF vs 40 PA. San Diego in 4 home games has 96 PF vs 94 PA. IMO McNabb will try to show Rivers up this week so look for Phil. to score between 23 - 28 pts with Phil. defense holding SD to 13 - 18 pts. Overall looking at Philadelphia winning by 5 - 10 pts.

Sunday Night Game:

New England @ Indianapolis - OMG! but will this game hold up to all the hype for it? Although alot of media hype this week about this match-up, it really only centers around P. Manning vs T. Brady. In reality if you look, neither team has really played tough opposing teams. Colts have played very well on the road while lacking at home but still winning. New England has played a little tougher teams than Colts have but still no over-whelming ones and have lost some that they probably should have won. In 4 home games the Colts have 86 PF vs 60 PA. New Eng. in 3 road games has 61 PF vs 43 PA. All in all two evenly match teams, look for New Eng. to get 17 to 20 pts. while Peyton and crew should pull out about 18 to 23 pts. Very close game and ranks as match-up #5 as a victory could happen for either team. Overall looking at COLTS winning by 1 - 3 pts.

Monday Night Game:

Baltimore @ Cleveland - Word is out that Quinn will be starting QB for Browns but, that will only gain Cleveland some extra points not a win. Baltimore has been up and down all year but not that down that they allow Quinn to beat them. In 4 away games Baltimore has 90 PF vs 103 PA. Cleveland has totals of 43 PF vs 88 PA in 3 home games. Baltimore should put up between 23 - 29 pts with Browns showing about 14 - 20 pts. Overall looking at Baltimore winning by 3 - 9 pts.

I'm looking at just 3 up-sets this week (Buffalo, K.C., Phil.)

Have a great week!

For Randy Inman predictions go here: Week 10

Be seeing you, Knobby...