8 weeks of football are done, which means...
The official Knobby Kabushka 8' x 10' Charts are up on the walls, the stats are written, I'm signed up for Football Outsiders Loser League
and we're heading all of this to Tampa Bay on Feb. 1st,2009...
So far I have these games judged:
Cleveland wins @ home by 4+ - - - this could very well change by Thursday with Quinn being put in as QB. Quinn hasn't played since 01/03/2007 and that was his last college game, so talk about being rusty and battle unproven... Broncos on the other hand are injury riddled, but have signed linebacker Mario Haggan and defensive back Roderick Rogers to their active roster on Tuesday and also promoted running back P.J. Pope from their practice squad. They waived tight end Chad Mustard and signed running back Cory Boyd and linebacker Tyson Smith to their practice squad. So alot of fresh meat out on the green slab....
11/05/2008 UPDATE: I'm sticking to my original pick Browns by 4+, based on defenses of both teams. Since both offenses are totally screwy the only option is to base the game on their defenses,which I have done... In road games, Denver's defense has allowed opps to score a avg of 29.3 pts and 25.7 pts on grass fields...In home games, Cleveland's defense has allowed opps to score a avg. of 22.2 pts and 21.1 pts on grass fields...
Atlanta wins @ home by 10 or less,
Tenn. wins away by 6 or less,
Houston wins @ home by 5 or less,
Miami wins @ home by 6 or more,
NYG wins away by 4 or less...
and for my Pick the Pros friends and their Sunday nite tie-breaker, I have NYG 24 - Phil. 20
2 games I'm still working on is Jacksonville/Detroit and the one between my beloved COLTS and them hot pressed and rolled cold Steelers, that's going to be a rough one to pick. Oh! I can still see that January 14, 1996 game when #4 QB Jim Harbaugh threw a hail mary at the final gun and the ball rolling off the stomach of WR-Aaron Bailey in the Pittsburgh end zone...AAGGHH!!! the agony of defeat....
Well, early look see at my charts says Pittsburgh by 6 or less, we'll see...
11/05/2008 Jacksonville/Detroit Update: If Detroit plays Culpepper they stand a better chance of maybe a win. Even though he's rusty, they say he threw sharp and handed off solid today.
The defense for Detroit sucks, that where the If comes in, If Jacksonville is on game they'll go right though Detroit. Culpepper, if he plays is going to have to put some big numbers up to compensate for what their defense allows... Jason Hanson is a damn good field goal kicker and Cul will make offense SLIGHTLY better. It's the Det. defense that will probably make him wish he stayed home... Some stats - Jacksonville has scored a total of 76 pts in 4 road games and their defense has allowed a total of 76 pts... In home games, Detroit has scored 49 pts and their defense has allowed 107 pts...
Even though Culpepper MIGHT improve Detroit's Off. I don't see a win happening this week... Jacksonville wins away by 8 or less...
11/06/2008 Colts/Steelers Update: All the numbers indicate that the Steelers SHOULD win this game hands down. The pts the Steelers defense has allowed is down right LOWWWWWWWW...( Home - 19.3 avg, Grass - 15.1avg, Last 3 games - 12.1 avg) while at the same time the pts Colts defense has allowed has been HIGHHHH( Road - 26.7avg, Grass - 30.7avg, Last 3 games - 26.7avg). Since moving to Heinz Field the Steelers are 41-14-1. Offensively, Steelers come out on top also, (Home - 25pts avg, Grass - 20pts avg, Last 3 - 25 pts avg), the Colts are close offensively (Road 21pts avg, Grass - 22pts avg, last 3 - 17.7pts avg)
The IF in this game is Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger, If Leftwich has to start against the Colts, it would prove to be the better of the two for the Colts. Leftwich is 2-3 as a starter against the Colts from his AFC South days. Roethlisberger has a 45-18 record as a starter, and also a playoff victory at Indy in the 2005 AFC Divisional playoffs. Something else for the records is the Colts have won only once in 10 trips to Pittsburgh, that came in 1968. So whats the verdict? Since it's week 10 in the season and the numbers are there and as much as I hate to go against the COLTS... Pittsburgh wins @home by 8 or less...
Subject to flip-flop before 4pm Sunday, LOL
At the last minute I changed my pick from Pittsburgh to the COLTS, I just couldn't pick against them and they did me proud...
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment