Week 12 - 2008 Season - Sunday Games

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ DETROIT LIONS

OK, I know, I know why bother? and I'm even putting this game on top here. Well I feel crazy this week and 2 other reasons - turnovers, penalties. Actually you could say 4 reasons - the previous 3 and add Jason Hanson. Long history between these 2 and as bad as Det. has been AALLLL these years and as goooood as TB has been
AALLL these years, the records still show Det. leading the series 14 - 9... So call me crazy, say I've spent too much time @ the puter, or I must have got hold of some bad Strohs, BUT...MY PICK - LIONS

HOUSTON TEXANS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Look for more of a running game than passing, especially with news that Quinn has a broken finger. (Quinn broke his right index finger in the first half of Monday night's win over Buffalo)

Houstons RB Slaton can run and can put up yardage if allowed to (156 yds in week 11). Browns RB Lewis could also see more work against Houstons weak defense... just a little side note - The Browns could be big winners if they also give the ball more to RB Jerome Harrison, he has ran for 158 total yards with only 10 hand offs the past 2 weeks. (15.8 ypc)

As for the QBs - Rosenfels seems to have a tendency towards still throwing interceptions and I see in this game, him doing the same, expect at least 2. Quinn in his 3rd start (if he plays) will hold steady again, although maybe doing more hand offs...

Turnovers and weather will play a big part in this game, Houston has more of a chance to give the ball away than Cleveland does, so look for Cleveland to try to shake Sage... As for weather if the game is played in rainy, cold settings the Browns stand a much better chance of winning compared to Houstons where their passing game is better suited for fair/sunny weather...

Bottom line is if Browns can make Sage throw interceptions (2+) and Lewis can rush for a 100 yds, they can come away with a 1 or 2 pt. victory... Less then 2 interceptions and fair weather, could be the Texans walking down the aisle... Check the weather conditions before placing your bets boys & girls... MY PICK - BROWNS

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Will this be a repeat of this years earlier game or will Atl put the metal to the pedal and run over Carolina this week? Lets look, 1st Atl has a sight advantage in pts scored at home compared to Carolinas road scoring ( Panthers- 14.0/19.2 - - Falcons- 29.6/19.8). QBs, Delhomme and Ryan both are good, except that Delhomme has not had a good last 2 weeks completing just 17-of-46 passes. Ryan has had a few bad games, but is steady in all...

Panthers RBs Williams and Stewart seems to be hitting their stride together (31 att/ 134yds avg all games) but they seem to lose something when playing road games ( 24 att/ 98 yds avg road games). Falcons RBs Turner and Norwood seem to average better numbers at home( 36att/161yds avg. home games)

So what does all this mean? It means defense, sacks and interceptions, special teams. Carolina has to stop Turner from getting 100 yds, and they have to get at Ryan and they can boogie the night away. Atlanta just has to stop Williams & Stewart & get some good action from their special teams and Atl will dance the dance of stars... MY PICK - ATLANTA

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Adrian Peterson! He is the Vikings this year, NFL's leading rusher and they run him & run him.
Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor will run for Jacksonville. Jacksonville linebackers might stop Mr. P @ less than 100 yds, but only because their fast not big... Minnesota has to make sure they grap all the way around when they go tackling Mr. J-D or he'll bust them...

Minnesotas passing is lacking to say the least, but maybe it can take advantage this week of Jacksonvilles mistake riddled deep coverage. Jacksonville QB Garrard receivers are not helping him and there is no going deep with good success. Did someone mention Field Goal?

Peterson gets 100+ yds and Vikings take the ball deep, look for a Ryan Longwell kick to win it, Peterson get -100 yds and Jags hold on to the ball, we could see the Jaguars showing their spots... MY PICK - MINNESOTA

NEW YORK JETS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Will this be the week Tenn. gos down? Jacksonville flopped on me in the 2nd half last week. The numbers point towards another Titan victory, BUT the Jets are on their game now more than ever this year - The offense has come together under Favre and RB Thomas Jones and with their excellent kick return yardage. (look for about 26 - 29 carries with 115 - 118 yds from Jets RBs) But the Titans just don't seem to be easy push over this year, teams have stacked the wall against them to block the run ( look for about 28 - 30 carries with 117 - 120 yds from Titans RBs) and they just turn to passing and succeed that way. Which is what the Jets are poor at, short pass coverage to the TE, and their linebackers seem to blitz alot. So can the Jets turn around their defense mode on a dime this week? If they can make the defense adjustment, if Jones gets good rushing yardage and with maybe a little help from Leon Washington on special teams, they stand a good chance of upsetting the Titans...MY PICK - TENNESSEE

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

This game will not even be close to the one played in week 3, both teams need to win this week, but which one will walk away with the playoff chance? Don't look for Matt Cassel to do what he did against the Jets last week ( 400 yards and 3 touchdowns ), instead look for him to run for his life - Miami's blitz machine will be working just fine this game, so don't look for him to throw many deep ones to Randy Moss trying to take advantage of a somewhat weak Dolphins secondary. Which will leave Patroits RBs Sammy Morris, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Kevin Faulk needing to run inside alot but might not get many yds. ( look for 90 - 105 combined yards )

The Dolphins have different possibilities to use, RBs Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown will be hard to defend ( look for combined yardage of about 115 - 130 ) and WRs Greg Camarillo and Ted Ginn Jr. might have a very good day if Patroits secondary has a lackluster play attitude...

Dolphins one downfall might be their very weak kick return coverage... MY PICK - MIAMI


Sunday Night Game:
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

2 teams this year that have opposite problems, so we're told, Colts have poor rushing defense, Chargers have poor passing defense. What to do,what to do???

Well, 1st - do the Colts have a poor rushing defense? If you take the standard figure given out by most football stat sites the answer is yes (gives up 138.1 rushing yards per contest) BUT that figure is misleading because it comes from all games and is not broken down... You break their games down between road and home and you get this stat for last 2 road games since the team has gelled ( gives up 72 rushing yards per contest). That doesn't look like a poor rush defense.

2nd, Do the Chargers have a poor pass defense? again yes if you get the standard stat given out (allowing 267 yards per game through the air) BUT lets break that down to just last 3 home games and see if that stands up. (allowing 265 yards per game through air), not that far off. So what we have is the Colts have been getting better defending the run as the year has progressed, but the Chargers continue to have a poor pass defense... interesting!!!

Colts have to find a way to stop LT from rushing over 100 yds, which they might do and get Rivers to do like he did last week against Pittsburgh (2 INTs and just 159 yards passing)
Chargers just need to get to Manning and force him to throw some INTs like last years game(tossed six INTs in a loss) and hope that Addai gos back to his slump ( last week he had 153 yards rushing and 2 TDs)... MY PICK - COLTS (24 - 20)

Other Games:

MY PICKS -
DALLAS
BUFFALO
CHICAGO
BALTIMORE
DENVER
ARIZONA
SEATTLE

MONDAY NIGHT - MY PICK - NEW ORLEANS