2008 - Week 18 - Wildcard Games

Atlanta @ Arizona

Atlanta (11-5): For road games they score 19.2 avg pts and give up 20.1 avg pts. For road dome games they score 24.5 avg pts. and give up 23 avg pts.
Their TO avg. is 1.4 with a penalty avg. of 5 for 42 yds

Sideline: They have won 4 road games - 2 against losing avg. teams, 1 against a 8-8 team and 1 against winning avg teams. They have lost 4 road games against 3 winning avg. teams & 1 against a 8-8 team. In 3 road games they were listed as favorites (53% > 83%) - they won 2 and lost 1. Atlanta is currently listed as 77% to 80% favorites...

Arizona (9-7): For home/dome games they score 30.2 avg pts and give up 22.2 avg pts.
Their TO avg. is 1.2 with a penalty avg. of 7 for 53 yds.

Sideline: They have won 6 home games - 4 against losing avg. teams and 2 against winning avg. teams. They have lost 2 home games against 2 winning avg. teams. In 3 home games they were listed as under-dogs (25% > 30%) - they won 2 & lost 1.
Arizona is currently listed as 20% to 23% underdogs...

Key points to watch for: To win Atlanta QB Matt Ryan needs to throw at maxium only 1 interception. Atlantas RBs Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood need to combine for 100+ yds. Should handle the job with a offense that has a 32 total ranking.

For Arizona to win their defense needs to pressure Ryan into mistakes/interceptions and keep Turner/Norwood from rushing 100 yds. Of course with a defense total ranking of 85, might make for a long day... MY PICK: ATLANTA


Indianapolis @ San Diego

Up-Date: Tomlinson, Gates miss 2nd practice. Real or Ploy? See - Injury

Indianapolis (12-4): for road games they score 21.5 avg. pts. and give up 22.1 avg.pts. For road grass games they score 22.0 avg.pts. and give up 23.1 avg.pts.
Their TO avg. is 1.4 with a penalty avg. of 6 for 43 yds.

Sideline: They have won 6 out of 8 road games - 2 against winning avg. teams, 2 against 8 -8 teams, 2 against losing avg.teams. They have lost 2 road games - 1 against a winning avg. team and 1 against a losing avg. team. They were listed as favorites in 6 of them with a percent range of 71% > 97% - they won 5 & lost 1. The other 2 road games, they were listed as underdogs with a percent range of 26% > 27% - they lost 1 and won 1.... Indianapolis is currently listed as 80% favorites.


San Diego (8-8): For home games they score 30.5 avg. pts and give up 19.6 avg.pts. For grass games they score 28.3 avg. pts and give up 21.6 avg. pts.
Their TO avg. is 0.9 with a penalty avg. of 6 for 43 yds.

Sideline: They have won 5 out of 8 home games - 2 against winning avg. teams, 2 against losing avg. teams and 1 against a 8-8 team. They have lost 3 home games all against winning avg. teams. In 6 home games they were listed as favorites to win with a percent range of 63% > 96% - they won 5 & lost 1. The other 2 home games they were listed as underdogs to lose with a percent range of 18% > 45% - they lost both. San Diego is currently listed as 20% underdogs.

Key points to watch for: To win Indy must find a way to keep SD RB Tomlinson from the ball (-20 carries) or keeping him at minimum yardage. (-40), while at the same time picking up Sproles. Also, 2 to 3 sacks on Rivers will help immensely. Very doable if their total 48th ranking defense comes to play.

For San Diego to win, they have to hope by chance that P.Manning of early season shows up. If not that than defense needs to sack him 3+ times and force 2+ TOs, also keep in check Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes from racking up yds, while containing Reggie Wayne from getting in the open so much. Hard to do when your defense has a total ranking of 82... MY PICK: INDIANAPOLIS

Baltimore @ Miami

Baltimore (11-5): For road games they score 25.6 avg pts. and give up 20.5 avg. pts. Grass games they score 24.2 avg. pts. and give up 14.3 avg. pts. Their TO avg. is 1.2 with a penalty avg. of 6 for 48 yds.

Sideline: They have played 6 road games, (since & including Miami win) they have won 5 and lost 1. The 1 they lost was against the Giants(12-4) - the 5 they won were against Miami(11-5), who were 2-3 at the time they played, Cleveland(4-12), Houston(8-8), Cincinnati(4-11), Dallas(9-7).

Don't let the Dallas win fool you, that was in last 2 weeks of season, with the Dallas team being a coaches worse nightmare. Not much better standing teams then Miami has played against, and as with Miami, the wins looks good on paper, but Baltimore had a hard time with the stronger team.

In their 8 road games, they were listed as percentage under-dogs (11% > 49%) in 6 of them - they won 3 & lost 3. In the other 2 they were listed as percent favorites (80% > 97%) - they won both. Baltimore is currently listed as 55% to 60% favorites.

Miami (11-5): For home games they score 18.6 avg. pts. and give up 20.5 avg pts. Grass games they 22.1 avg. pts. and give up 21.5 avg. pts.
Their TO avg. is 0.9 with a penalty avg. of 5 for 44 yds.

Sideline: They have played 6 home games, (since & including balt. lost) they have won 4 and lost 2. The 2 they lost were against Balt.(11-5) & N.E.(11-5) - the 4 they won were against Buffalo(7-9), Seattle(4-12), Oakland(5-11), San Francisco(7-9). As you can see Miami's 4 victories all though looking good on paper were against much weaker teams. When going up against a little stronger win percentage teams, they seem to have had a hard time.

Out of the total 8 home games Miami had - in 4 they were listed as percentage under-dogs with a range of 11% > 49% chance of winning - they won 2 & lost 2. In the 4 they were listed as favorites with a percent range of 67% > 98% chance of winning - they won 3 & lost 1.
Miami is currently listed as 40% to 45% underdogs.

Key points to watch for: To win Miami needs to get to Flacco and make him throw interceptions, that has been the key between these 2 teams since last year. They also have to dazzle - up their "wildcat" package and get Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams some running yds, somewhere between 100 to 130 combined.

For Baltimore to win, they need Flacco perfect and since last meeting the Dolphins have made great improvements in their secondary pass coverage in the second half of the season. Miami pass rush could hurt Baltimore also. LeRon McClain and Willis McGahee, could help if they get yardage of 100 or so... MY PICK: MIAMI


Philadelphia @ Minnesota

(NOTE) - Just the road/home/dome games point stats below are limited. Philadelphia's are from the tie game with Cincinnati to end of season - this is the period that McNabb was benched and then came back alive. Minnesota's are from the 3 home games that Jackson has played QB in, since it looks like he will be playing instead of Frerotte...

Philadelphia(9-6-1): For road games they score 10.7 avg. pts. and give up 18.3 avg.pts. they have not played a dome game this year. Their TO avg. is 1.9 with a penalty avg. of 5 for 39 yds.

Sideline: First off you have to wonder which McNabb & Eagle team will show up? the one that put away Arizona and Dallas @ home or the one that didn't even get a TD @ Washington. McNabbs mood is key to Philadelphia games and since tieing with Cincinnati he has not been all that great in away games, no matter what he has done at home. (13-13 @ Cin., 7-36 @ Balt., 20-14 @ Nyg., 3-10 @ Wash.)

With Philadelphias 8 road games, they were listed as favorites in 5 with percent range of 80% > 97% - they won 2 - lost 2 - tied 1. In 3 games they were listed as under-dogs with a percent range of 11% > 35% - they won 1 & lost 2. Philadelphia is currently listed as 65% to 70% favorites.

Minnesota(10-6): For home/dome games (under Jackson) they score 17.3 avg.pts and give up 20.3 avg. pts. Their TO avg. is 1.9 with a penalty avg. of 5 for 43 yds.

Sideline: Jackson hasn't been tearing anybody up either. He started the first 2 games of the season and was benched and then came back on in week 14 against Detroit. Opposite of McNabb, Jackson seems to play better away then home, although his home games have been close ones that could have went either way...

In 3 of Minnesotas home games they were listed as percentage underdogs with a range of 24% > 42% chance of winning - they won 2 & lost 1. In 4 they were listed as favorites in the percent range of 66% > 96% - they won 3 & lost 1. In 1 game they were listed as a 50% chance of winning - they won that... Minnesota is currently listed as 30% to 35% underdogs.

Key points to watch for: RBs - Brian Westbrook for Philadelphia & Adrian Peterson for Minnesota. Which ever team can control the others RB will probably be the difference in winning and losing. Minnesota has a much better run defense than Philadelphia. Minnesota also has to find some glue or super-sticky gloves for Peterson to wear during this game...
Pass-Happy Reid will probably challenge Minnesota's secondary with a pass-first offense, but only if they're running the ball effectively.

If Minnesota is to win they must first score early and keep a lead. They must keep Westbrook under a 100 yds & out of the endzone and have DE Jared Allen and DT Kevin Williams continue their very good ball defending. Pressure on McNabb wouldn't hurt either... Which in turn would put the screws to the pass-first offense.

For Philadelphia to win they have to have the right McNabb playing and Westbrook has to break free and help out with more than 60-70 yds rushing, especially in the red zone. They also have to corral Minn. RB Peterson and the receivers have to hold on to the ball when thrown it, which they seem of lately to be slacking on, not helping McNabb and his mood...The Eagles have the talent but they also have the tendency to self-destruct...MY PICK: MINNESOTA


Superbowl here we come............